The Warsaw housing market is heating up emotions again. Headlines about new apartment prices exceeding PLN 20,000. PLN per square meter build the image of the capital as a city that is less and less accessible to the average buyer. The problem is that the average price itself describes reality less and less. BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data show that the actual market picture is more complex, and the structure of developers' offers is of key importance today. It is the dynamic development of the premium segment that makes the statistics soar, though the prices of apartments purchased by most customers remain much lower. Experts indicate that to properly assess the situation on the real estate market in Warsaw, you need to look not only at the average, but above all at median housing prices.
Read also: Mortgage loan and child. Experts show how much you lose in ability
On paper, the situation looks alarming. According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data the average price per square meter of new apartments in Warsaw reached PLN 20,000 in April. zloty. But the median, i.e. the value showing the price of the “middle of the market”, was only PLN 17.6 thousand. PLN per square meter. The difference is as much as 13%.
It is the median that is increasingly becoming a more important indicator for analysts than the average. It shows not the prices of the most luxurious apartments, but the level around which most offers and transactions are concentrated.
Apartment prices
|
Primary Market
See also: Remote work and high housing prices. Poles are changing their lifestyle
— This shows that the greater the share of very expensive apartments, the more so The mean and the median diverge – and the headline numbers need to be interpreted all the more carefully – comments Marek Wielgo, an expert at the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.
A similar mechanism can also be seen in other largest Polish cities. In Krakow, the average price of new apartments is PLN 17.1 thousand. PLN per square meter, while the median is PLN 16,000. zloty. In Wrocław, the rates reach PLN 15.3 thousand, respectively. and 14.3 thousand PLN, and in Poznań 14.3 thousand. and 13.2 thousand zloty.
Apartment prices in Warsaw are rising due to luxury apartments
However, Warsaw remains the absolute leader in market stratification. The reason is simple – the capital attracts more and more top-shelf investments, which can radically increase the average price of apartments.
At the beginning of the year, further spectacularly priced projects went on sale. In Liberty Tower, prices reached up to PLN 45,000. PLN per square meter. Soon after, even more expensive investments appeared. In the Murano project implemented by Profbud, the rates reached PLN 54,000. PLN per square meterand in a luxurious investment in Warsaw's Wola district, prepared by Monting Development, the prices of the most expensive apartments even exceeded PLN 80,000. PLN per meter.
Apartment prices
|
Primary Market
Read: Investment in an apartment or developer's shares? Surprising results of the decade
It's still there a small part of the market, but one that has a huge impact on the statistics. In practice, this means that an increase in the average price does not always mean automatic increases in all apartments. More and more often he talks about changing the structure of developers' offers.
Experts point out that just a few years ago, such exclusive projects were rare. Today they are becoming permanent element of the Warsaw real estate landscape.
— Average prices of high-end apartments in Warsaw have increased by 37% in the last two years, from approximately PLN 31,000. PLN up to 42 thousand PLN per square meter – emphasizes Jan Dziekoński, chief economist of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.
As the expert points out, this increase was largely influenced by the appearance of investments such as Szara 10A, Rozbrat 44, Chłodna 35 and Villa Bogoria, where apartment prices start from approximately PLN 6 million.
Dziekoński notes that the modern premium segment no longer sells only location or square footage. The intimacy of the investment, privacy, high quality of architecture and the lifestyle associated with prestigious addresses are becoming more and more important.
– This segment is no longer just about a prestigious location, but about a certain 'vibe' – intimacy, peace and a sense of exclusivity that attract not only Polish multi-millionaires, but also clients from London, Berlin and Paris – explains the economist.
The apartment market in Warsaw is still based on the popular segment
Despite the media publicity surrounding apartments costing several dozen thousand zlotys per square meter, the core of the Warsaw market remains much more down-to-earth. The largest part of the offer is still apartments from the popular segment — economy and economy plus.
And this is where prices remain surprisingly stable. According to RynekPierwotny.pl data The average price of apartments in this segment has remained at the level of PLN 17,000 for about two years. PLN per square meter.
This is important information for people planning to buy their first apartment or looking for a place for their own needs. This means that rapid increases in the average market price do not automatically translate into the entire popular segment.
The situation in the group of apartments referred to as upper-middle and premium is changing much more dynamically. These are projects addressed to wealthier clients, who often buy real estate as an investment or treat an apartment as an element of building wealth.
In the upper-middle segment, prices regularly exceed PLN 25,000. PLN per square meter, while in the most luxurious investments the rates start from approximately PLN 50,000. PLN and often exceed PLN 60,000. PLN per square meter
Importantly, analysts emphasize that these types of projects are less and less dependent on the credit situation in Poland. Customers are often people buying for cash, foreign investors or very wealthy Poles looking for a safe place to invest their capital.
The median housing price shows the true picture of the market
Experts increasingly emphasize that When analyzing the real estate market, the average price alone is no longer sufficient. Especially in times when developers' offers are very diverse.
A good example is the recent months on the Warsaw market. In the first part of the year, the average price per square meter grew very dynamically and was even by about 8 percent higher than a year earlier. However, in May, a larger number of apartments with more moderate prices went on sale, including: in the Głębocka Vita projects or subsequent stages of Bulwary Praskie.
The effect may be surprising. The average price per square meter may drop slightlyeven though developers do not actually reduce prices. The reason is simple – the structure of the offer is changing.
This is why the median is a more reliable reference point for many experts today. It cuts out extremely expensive investments and shows the “core of the market” – that is, the price level corresponding to the real possibilities of most buyers.
For customers, this means one thing: headlines about apartments for PLN 20,000. PLN per meter do not always describe the reality of the entire market. More and more often, they are the result of the growing presence of luxury apartments, which drive up the average, but remain beyond the reach and interest of most buyers.
