Amid rising global energy prices and falling popularity, Donald Trump faces tough choices after a month of conflict with Iran: sign a potentially damaging deal and withdraw, or escalate and risk a protracted war that could destroy his presidency, Reuters wrote in an analysis a month after hostilities began.
Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, Trump is wrapping up another week of a joint US-Israeli campaign struggling to contain a widening Middle East crisis as a defiant Iran clamps down on oil and gas shipments in the Gulf and continues missile and drone attacks across the region.
The central question now, analysts say, is whether Trump is prepared to scale back or escalate the war that has triggered the worst global energy supply shock in history, with effects far beyond the region.
Trump has told his advisers he wants to avoid an “endless war” and find a negotiated solution, urging them to emphasize the four-to-six-week duration of hostilities he has publicly presented, a senior White House official said, adding that such a timetable appeared “uncertain.”
At the same time, Trump has threatened a major military escalation if negotiations fail.
Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran, including a 15-point peace proposal delivered unofficially through Pakistan, appeared to demonstrate a growing desire for a way out of the conflict. But it remains unclear whether there are currently any realistic prospects for negotiations leading to an outcome.
“President Trump has poor options across the board to end the war,” said Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East. “Part of the problem is the lack of clarity about what would constitute a satisfactory outcome,” he explained.
A White House official insisted that the campaign against Iran “will end when the supreme commander determines that our objectives have been met” and that Trump had set clear objectives.
Variant of another major attack, followed by a declaration of victory
In an attempt to keep all options on the table, Trump has sent several thousand more US troops to the region and warned Iran of an even more intense attack, which could include the involvement of ground troops, if Tehran does not give in to his demands.
Analysts say such a show of force could be aimed at creating leverage to extract concessions from Tehran, but risks drawing the US into a longer conflict, with any commitment to send troops to Iranian soil likely to anger many American voters.
Another possible scenario, experts say, would be for the U.S. to launch a final major airstrike under “Operation Epic Fury” to further degrade Iran's military capabilities and nuclear facilities, after which Trump would declare victory and withdraw, saying his war aims had been achieved.
But such a statement would sound unnatural unless the vital Strait of Hormuz is completely reopened, something Iran does not want to allow. And Trump expressed frustration with European allies' refusal to send warships to help secure the waterway.
Trump wants to convey that the war will end soon
Trump, who has repeatedly promised to keep the US out of foreign conflicts, appears to be struggling to contain the widening war he started with Israel.
Even as he continued to deliver triumphalist assessments, he increasingly geared his messages toward calming jittery financial markets, pressing senior advisers to emphasize that the war would soon be over, according to a senior White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
But the lack of a clear exit strategy poses dangers to both Trump's presidential legacy and his party's prospects as Republicans try to defend their fragile congressional majorities in November's midterm elections.
Iran has bet that it can suffer more than the enemy
Trump's biggest miscalculation was the scale of Tehran's retaliation. It has used its missiles and drones to strike Israel and neighboring Gulf states and largely close the Strait of Hormuz, the channel through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, sending shockwaves through the global economy.
“The Iranian government's bet is that it can suffer longer than its adversaries, and they may be right,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.
The White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Trump and his team were “well prepared” for Iran's response in the strait and were confident it would reopen soon.
Even so, the clearest sign of Trump's growing uneasiness about war came on Monday, when he backtracked on his big threat to destroy Iran's power grid if it did not allow shipping through the strait to resume.
In a move widely seen as intended to calm markets, he declared a five-day pause in implementing his threat to give diplomacy a chance. On Thursday, he extended this break by another 10 days.
Meanwhile, domestic pressure is mounting
Polls show the war is deeply unpopular with Americans, and while Trump's MAGA movement has largely supported it, his grip on the political base could weaken if the economic impact, including high gas prices, persists.
Trump's overall approval rating fell to 36 percent, the lowest level since he returned to the White House, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday.
The White House is increasingly worried about the political fallout from the war, a former senior Trump administration official told Reuters, citing concerns expressed by Republican lawmakers about the upcoming midterm elections.
In a sign of growing unease among Republicans, Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, on Thursday criticized the administration for not providing enough information about the extent of the Iran campaign.
Diplomacy does not offer simple solutions either
The 15-point plan presented by Trump is similar to what Iran had largely rejected in pre-conflict negotiations and includes some elements that would be difficult to implement. The demands range from dismantling Iran's nuclear program and reducing its missile arsenal to giving up its proxy groups and effectively handing over control of the Straits.
Iran described the US offer as unfair and unrealistic – but did not rule out continued indirect contacts.
Although Trump insisted on Thursday that Iran was “begging” for a deal, its leaders appear in no rush to negotiate an end to the conflict, analysts say, because they believe they will be able to claim victory simply by surviving.
Replacing leaders killed in US-Israeli airstrikes with even more intransigent successors has further complicated diplomatic efforts, analysts say. Tehran has made clear its distrust of Trump, who has twice in the past year launched airstrikes while both sides were still negotiating.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have expressed concern that Trump could make concessions that would leave them helpless in the face of future attacks against Iran.
Washington's Gulf allies could also feel a hasty US withdrawal, given that they could be left with a “wounded” and hostile neighbor.
“Contradictory Signals”
If Trump is indeed ready to deploy ground forces, he could seize control of Iran's Kharg Island oil hub or other strategic islands, launch operations along the country's coast or send special forces in a complex attempt to seize stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, believed to have been largely buried underground following US-Israeli bombing last June.
Such moves could degenerate into a wider conflict reminiscent of the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, although Trump has vowed that the US will never be involved in such a thing during his term. They would also risk increasing the number of American casualties and raise more questions about the objectives of the US mission.
Gulf allies have warned the Trump administration against sending troops on the ground to Iran, saying it could trigger more retaliation from Tehran, possibly against their energy and civilian infrastructure, a senior Gulf official said on condition of anonymity.
The White House official said Trump made it clear that he “has no plans to send ground troops anywhere at this time,” but added that he always keeps all options on the table.
For now, Trump is keeping the world in suspense, one moment making statements meant to calm volatile markets and the next issuing threats that send energy prices soaring.
“Trump is sending mixed signals,” said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.
“He is a 'fog of war' messaging machine that acts alone to keep his opponents in a precarious balance,” she added.
