Currency crisis of the most oil-producing country in the world. The professor's cunning plan and 50 percent. in one month of Venezuela's national index
Venezuela is getting the world's attention. Tension in relations with the USA, this year's Nobel Peace Prize for Venezuelan Machado, the currently highest inflation in the world and the largest documented oil deposits. In addition, the stock index, which allowed me to earn 50%. in one month. The nominal rate of return allowed Professor Krzysztof Borowski to win the Portfolio of Stars, who was able to draw the right conclusion from the unfavorable situation of the country in a deep currency crisis: the stock market will grow.
This time, 25 assets from financial markets selected for the Star Portfolio for October, including company shares, stock indices, ETFs, State Treasury bonds, as well as cryptocurrencies and precious metals, with equal weighting, achieved an average rate of return of 1.4%. During this time, the MSCI All-Country World Index, measuring the condition of the global stock market, increased by 2.18%.
Venezuela index in price, metals correction and cryptocurrency declines
It would not be an exaggeration to say that October's potential was not used. The stock markets broke records, both in Poland and the USA, but when choosing assets, no one hit the workhorses of both stock exchanges, which in October were KGHM (21%) and Orlen (16%) on the one hand, and AMD (59%), Micron (35%), Intel (19%) on the other. Even taking into account the largest ones in the US, the monthly returns of Google (17%) and Amazon (12%) stood out.
All of the above were driven by the boom related to AI and only the choice of Palantir (10%) gives hope that this mega trend does not escape the attention of our Stars. On the other hand, a risky attempt to play a short position on the hot American stock market and at the same time on local bond prices turned out to be a loss.
Precious metals, having their wide representation, did not maintain the records from the first half of the month, which were corrected in the second half of October, hence the flat prices of gold, silver and platinum. Only the good performance of palladium (14%) saved the month for bullion. However, the correction in cryptocurrencies is dragging on. After falls in September on ethereum and the depreciation of Strategy (-3.6%), i.e. the bitcoin treasury, ripple (-12%) and bitcoin itself (-4%) joined the declines in October.
There were a few less obvious bets on the Polish WSE, but they brought mixed results. Nice increases in Ipopema (7%), Ten Square Games (6%) and the WIGDivPlus (5%) and WIG (4.8%) indices must be contrasted with declines in Lubawa (-3%), Data Walk (-9.6%) and, above all, CCC (-17%), which in mid-month was the subject of serious accusations from one of the market intelligence agencies and attracted a large number of short positions. On the commodity market, the copper ETF provided a decent rate of return (5.2%).
Professor Borowski wins in October
However, the best index was the stock exchange in Venezuela (49.7%). Bringing together 15 of the largest companies on the Caracas trading floor, it earned nearly 50% in one month, thus winning the October edition of the Portfolio of Stars. prof. Krzysztof Borowski. This is his second win since the project started in March 2024. The professor's portfolio also included bitcoin, Ethereum and shares of the Polish Lubawa (-3%), which ultimately gave a result of 8.8%.
He took second place Sebastian Buczekthe founder and president of the listed Quercus TFI. Traditionally, his choice was one company from the domestic stock exchange, which allowed the investor to once again stand on the podium. Buczek took third place in the summer edition, second place in September and won in January and February. In October, his choice – Ipopema Secirities – earned 7.2%.
Third place was also taken by a regular on the podium, i.e Sobiesław Kozłowskihead of the analysis department at Noble Securities. Let us recall that this year Kozłowski was on the podium in January, February, April, May, June and in the summer edition, in which he took second place. In October, he bet on Ten Square Games from the WSE, which earned nearly 6%.
Previous winners of the “Bankier's Star Portfolio”:
Jarosław Fuchs – 4 wins
Albert Rokicki – 3 wins
Sobiesław Kozłowski – 2 wins
Sebastian Buczek – 2 wins
Jarosław Grzywiński – 2 wins
prof. Krzysztof Borowski – 2 wins
Piotr Kuczyński – 1 win
Katarzyna Szwarc – 1 win
Tomasz Prusek – 1 win
Michał Masłowski – 1 win
Venezuelan record
It is worth stopping for a moment about Venezuela and explaining that the enormous growth of the stock market is the result of record inflation and the depreciation of the local currency – the bolivar. Investing capital in shares is a mechanism for protecting against the loss of money value, already observed on stock exchanges in Turkey and Argentina, where over a year ago Professor Borowski also tried to play a similar scenario, hoping to win, but the crash ended the chance.
The increases in the Caracas stock exchange index are partly illusory – denominated in local currency, they do not reflect the actual increase in value in US dollars, which, according to Bloomberg data, amounted to 18.9 percent. However, the principles of our project are clear and we calculate the nominal rate of return of the selected asset. Observation of what is happening in Venezuela and, above all, technical analysis of the chart, for which Prof. is known. Borowski, brought her second success in the Portfolio of Stars.
To complement the Venezuelan thread, let us remind you that a lot is happening around the country ruled by dictator Nicolas Maduro. The media report that it is only a matter of days before the US will use force against the country that has the largest documented oil deposits in the world (larger than Saudi Arabia). However, it is worth remembering that Saudi oil is light, low-polluted and easy to extract. Venezuelan oil is heavy and difficult to obtain.
Venezuela is currently struggling with the highest inflation in the world. The country's Central Bank stopped publishing inflation data several months ago. Estimates of current inflation are 480 percent. rdr. José Guerra, oppositionist and professor at the Central University of Venezuela, forecasts its level at 400%. in December – we read in El Pais.
The latest IMF review estimated the average annual inflation rate at 270%. From August to the end of October, the official bolivar rate fell by 60 percent. against the dollar. The high dynamics of the index therefore reflects the reaction to the currency crisis rather than the economic fundamentals of this oil-bearing country.
Since mid-2025, there has been an escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela, although for years the United States has been imposing severe sanctions on Venezuelan institutions, the government, oil companies and representatives of the regime, hindering access to financial markets and freezing foreign assets. Venezuela is extremely dependent on the export of recently cheaper oiland American sanctions limited the sale and inflow of hard currency.
Washington consistently opposes strengthening Venezuela's relations with Russia, China and Iran and limiting access of American companies to the exploitation of oil resources. Recently, the Pentagon announced the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford and its accompanying warships to the region. The show of force involves not only the presence of ships, but also actions aimed at boats involved in drug smuggling. According to American commentators, a new Trump doctrine is now being forged, involving restraint towards Europe and addressing US interests in Latin America.
Maduro asked Russia, China and Iran for support in strengthening Venezuela's military capabilities against the background of the growing presence of American forces in the Caribbean region. However, an American senator from the Republican party (supporting Trump) believes that “Maduro's days are numbered” and advises him to seek refuge in Russia and China after fleeing the country.
Maduro's rule was considered illegal by some international opinion after the controversial 2024 elections, before which the US imposed severe sanctions, deepening the outflow of capital and the destruction of the currency market. The pressure of the democratic international community was supported in October this year by the Nobel Committee, which awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to the leader of the democratic opposition in Venezuela, Maria Corina Machado.
About Star Wallet
The “Wallet of Stars” project is an educational initiative by Andrzej Stec, editor-in-chief of Bankier.pl, in which famous people from the Polish world of finance and the stock exchange share their investment ideas for a given month. Within it, a group of participants selects the assets that they believe will bring the highest return in a given month.
Let us remind you that investment choices for the Bankier.pl Star Portfolio are the result of an individual view, and not a recommendation. However, they can provide an indication of which asset groups market experts see as opportunities for profits.
The Portfolio of Stars is accompanied by panels with market experts as part of the “Debate of Champions” series. Participants of the “Wallet of Stars” can be met at the Bankier.pl Finance Forum conference in Wrocław, which this year was held under the slogan “Business for knowledge”.
