2025-05-08 17:42
publication
2025-05-08 17:42
After Jastrzębie, the statement of the NBP President Adam Glapiński, that it is doubtful that the MPC reduces interest rates in June, the zloty to the euro and dollar was strengthened, and the profitability of bonds increased in relation to the morning levels.
At Thursday's speech, NBP President Adam Glapiński announced that it is doubtful that the Monetary Policy Council would reduce interest rates in June. He reported that the position of the majority of the MPC indicates that autumn is crucial for the feet.
Glapiński also said that adaptation of interest rates does not mean the beginning of the cycle and nothing is decided. He also assessed that from the statements of the MPP members it can be brought that if the council decided to further lower their feet, whether in July or in autumn, most would be behind the cycle.
In his opinion, everything indicates that inflation has already passed its peak, although it is still increased. The fight for a permanent reduction in CPI has not been completed, there is uncertainty, among others regarding energy prices. He estimated that base inflation is still persistent and too high, and that loose fiscal policy remains the main pro -inflationary factor.
The President of the National Bank of Poland also announced that the case of mandatory reserves will be discussed at the next MPP meeting. In June, the width of the feet corridor can also be discussed.
Economists assessed the Thursday's statement of the President of the NBP as Jastrzębia.
“President Adam Glapiński hit Jastrzębie Tony today: accents more than a month ago were on the risk of inflation, yesterday's rate reduction was (so far), a one -time adaptation, subsequent cuts in July or autumn. Our forecast (-100 pb. In total this year) remains unchanged” – wrote on platform x economists Pekao.
They added that “market valuations from the meeting (-200 PB. This year) look absurd-this is not the reversal of the game from 2021-22”. “The MPP once again shows that it can stop when he wants, regardless of market pressure,” they pointed out.
Economists of mBank also on platform X said that “the statement of President Glapiński sounds as if RPP served +Jastrzębia a reduction +.” The script for the reduction of the feet drawn in April seemed to be more pigeons. Currently June is maybe 25 PB. (but rather not), and probably only July or autumn ” – they forecast.
According to ING Bank Śląski economists, the next foot reduction will probably take place in July.
“President of President Glapiński was part of our monetary scenario. Pause in June and the transition to a cycle of rates of rates of 25 pb. The nearest reduction probably in July, after the inflationary projection, and the next in the autumn. The market expected and valued too much, too fast” – wrote on platform X economists of ING Bank Śląski.
Economists of PKO BP upheld their forecast that this year there will be two more discounts of 25 PB. – in the summer (July) and in autumn (November).
After the statement of the NBP President, the euro/gold rate dived and fell by about 1.5 groszy in a few minutes. The dollar/zloty exchange rate just before Glapiński's speech was in the area of reference level, and after the start of the conference it fell by about 1 gr.
The Monetary Policy Council at the meeting on May 6-7 reduced all NBP interest rates by 50 pb, including reference to 5.25 percent. The decision was in line with market expectations.
Several European central banks have also made decisions on interest rates.
The Bank of England has lowered the main interest rate by 25 PB. up to 4.25 percent Analysts surveyed by the Bloomberg agency expected Boe to lower the percentage rates. by 25 pb.
In Sweden, the Central Bank Riksbank left the percentage rates. unchanged at 2.25 percent The decision was consistent with the expectations of most analysts surveyed by the Bloomberg agency.
Also, the Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) left the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 4.50 percent. (PAP)
Pam/ ASA/ Mick/
