2026-03-17 13:50
publication
2026-03-17 13:50
The European banking sector is in turmoil. The Italian giant UniCredit has officially announced its intention to take full control of the German Commerzbank. However, the transaction, which could completely redraw the financial map of Europe, arouses enormous resistance in Germany – both from the government and the management board of Commerzbank itself. For Polish customers and investors, one thing is crucial: the future of mBank is at stake in this game.
On Monday, March 16, 2026, UniCredit announced a share exchange offer, valuing Commerzbank at approximately EUR 35 billion. The Italian bank, which already owns nearly 30% of shares in the German institution, offered shareholders 0.485 of a new UniCredit share for each Commerzbank share. This translates into a price of approximately EUR 30.80 per share.
UniCredit President Andrea Orcel argues that the merger of both banks would create a European leader able to compete with giants from the US and China.
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This is an unacceptable offer – a tough response from Germany
The German reaction was immediate and decidedly cold. According to Reuters, Bettina Orlopp, CEO of Commerzbank, on Tuesday directly described the Italians' proposal as a “very low price” that does not reflect the real value of the bank or its growth potential after the recent restructuring.
“Our highest priority is to create lasting value for our shareholders and all Commerzbank stakeholders. We are convinced of the strength and potential of our strategy, which focuses on independence and profitable growth. This approach has not been coordinated with us. The exchange parity predicted in the announcement does not, in practice, include any bonus for our shareholders,” the bank said in a statement on Monday.
The government in Berlin is equally skeptical. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Ministry of Finance emphasize the strategic importance of Commerzbank for the German economy (the so-called systemically important bank). Berlin, holding approximately 12% of the shares, announced that it did not intend to sell them and supported the independence of the institution. German trade unions (Verdi), in turn, warn against mass layoffs, recalling the restructuring of the HVB bank after its takeover by UniCredit years ago.
What does this mean for mBank?
This transaction is of fundamental importance for the Polish financial market. Commerzbank holds nearly 69% of mBank's shares, which makes it a strategic investor of the fifth largest bank in Poland.
If UniCredit completes the takeover, mBank will gain a new owner. This would mean a great return of Italians to Polish retail banking on a mass scale (previously, UniCredit owned Pekao SA). Experts speculate about the future of the mBank brand – it is likely that UniCredit would strive for full integration, which in the Central and Eastern European region could result in the merger of mBank's operations with the existing UniCredit structures there (e.g. in the Czech Republic or Slovakia).
As announced, in May 2026, UniCredit is to formally present the offer and convene an extraordinary general meeting of its shareholders. The subscription period for shares would end in June. The first half of 2027 is the expected date of final settlement of the transaction, provided that the supervisory authorities consent to it.
At this moment, the market is entering the “positional war” phase. Investors are closely watching share prices, anticipating that Andrea Orcel may be forced to raise the stake to overcome the resistance of the German management and government. One thing is certain – the fate of mBank is being decided today in offices in Milan, Frankfurt and Berlin.
Prepared by JM
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