In an interview with CNN, during the summit for 10,000 people. small companies in Washington, the head of Goldman Sachs compared today's AI revolution to the invention of the steam engine at the end of the 18th century. Change, Solomon admits, can be painful, but the U.S. economy has proven its resilience time and time again. “There will be disruptions. But I believe that our economy is agile and adaptive. We are creating new companies and new professions. I don't think it will be any different this time,” he emphasized.
The difference from previous technological breakthroughs is the pace. AI is developing and being implemented faster than previous waves of automation. An internal Goldman Sachs survey among bankers shows that 37 percent customers today use AI in regular production, and next year this percentage is expected to reach 50 percent, and within three years – 74 percent. Consumer products are accelerating the acceleration. ChatGPT, which debuted in November 2022, already has 800 million active users (weekly), and its owner, OpenAI, is reportedly preparing for a stock exchange debut with a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion.
Today's systems can conduct deep queries, generate realistic videos, compose music and detect financial fraud before it is finalized. All this may make the temporary shock on the labor market stronger than before.
“The pace of adoption is slightly higher. Short-term disruption may be greater as companies struggle with implementation and automation. But our economy remains broad and agile,” says Solomon.
Office workers seem to be most at risk
Amazon has been cutting jobs this year. Although CEO Andy Jassy argued that 14,000 layoffs were not “AI-driven”, he announced in June that generative AI and AI agents would reduce employment in corporate teams.
Meta cut 600 roles within the AI team, YouTube offered voluntary departures as part of restructuring for artificial intelligence. Chegg, the online education platform, is facing pressure from both sides. ChatGPT limits the demand for its services, and the company itself invests in AI to operate more agilely – hence the decision to reduce almost half of the staff. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, by the end of September this year. in 17 thousand 375 announced layoffs explicitly mentioned AI as the reason, which is less than 2%. all announced cuts.
However, the scale may be underestimated. Another 20 thousand 219 reductions were generally linked to “technological updates”some of which may involve AI. “The demand for some white collar workers will decline, but it will be taken over by other segments of the economy,” Solomon estimates.
AI Could Eliminate Half of Junior Jobs
Not everyone shares this optimism. Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, warned that AI could eliminate half of junior positions in office professions and in the short term raise the unemployment rate to even 20 percent.
“It is disturbing how little public opinion and politicians realize the scale of changes. We must act now,” he said in May. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also noted that “a significant number of companies” are cutting or limiting recruitment, including: due to AI and that the central bank is “watching it closely” because the effects on job creation are visible.
The bigger picture, however, paints a more subdued narrative. A survey of over a hundred Goldman Sachs investment bankers shows that only 11 percent American companies are actively reducing employment due to AIalthough in technology, media and telecommunications the percentage increases to 31%. Bankers' expectations indicate moderate cuts of around 4%. over the next year and up to 11 percent over a three-year horizon, with particular emphasis on customer service. The bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, concludes that the impact of AI on the labor market and economy will be transformational, and the pace of implementation means that the effects may come “sooner than expected.”
In the background, there is also a growing question about the stock market bubble. Solomon admits that many great companies will be created, but the euphoria will not be linear.
