In 2026, Moscow's forces are losing on average at the front approx. 9 thousand killed per month, or approximately 300 people per day — calculated by Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, based on budget data from Russian regions.
According to statistics from regions that pay compensation for soldiers' deaths, the Russian army suffered record losses in August and December last year, reaching over 12,000. people per month. Compared to the beginning of 2024, the number of those killed at the front has doubled: then it was approximately 4,000. people per month.
Including the wounded, the total losses of the Kremlin army at the beginning of 2026 amounted to 1 million 198 thousand — according to calculations by the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Over the four years of the war, Moscow's forces lost 17 times more soldiers than the USSR in Afghanistan, 11 times more than during both Chechen wars and five times more than the total of all wars in which Russia and the USSR participated after 1945. According to CSIS estimates, among the losses up to 325,000. people were killed – a number comparable to the population of cities such as Smolensk, Belgorod or Chita.
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Putin's goals
At the price of gigantic losses over the last two years, Russian generals managed to increase the area under their control by only 8,400. sq km. In 2024, 0.6% was occupied. territory of Ukraine, and in 2025 – another 0.8 percent. In 2026, the Russian army began for the first time in three years lose territories: 116 sq km in April and 281.1 sq km in May – according to the assessment of the Institute of War Studies (ISW).
Despite stagnation on the front, the deteriorating economic situation and the government's declining approval ratings, Vladimir Putin's calculations regarding the war have not changed. The Russian leader still intends to continue military operations — sources close to the Kremlin previously told The Guardian.
One of the interlocutors emphasized that Putin hopes to take full control over Donbas by the end of the year and does not intend to stop until he achieves this goal. At the same time, the president believes in an imminent military breakthrough to Russia's advantage, the informants said.
According to the Financial Times, generals of the Russian General Staff have assured Putin that they will completely take over Donbas by the fall, and the president's ambitions may go far beyond this region – up to conquering all of Ukraine on the left bank of the Dnieper, including Kiev and Odessa.
According to information from the Financial Times, the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts also remain Russia's military goals, although for Putin they do not have the same symbolic importance as Crimea and Donbas.
Ukrainian chance
At the same time, Ukraine is exerting pressure increasing pressure on Russia. On the night of June 9-10, the authorities of the Russian Samara region announced a missile alert. They appealed to residents to stay in buildings and not approach windows. The state of alarm lasted until the morning. The Ukrainian army's target was the Rosneft refinery in Samara – one of the largest oil refineries in the region.
Cheboksary was also shelled. According to preliminary findings, the attack was aimed at the production plant, which was twice the target of Ukrainian drone attacks on May 5. The plant produces Kometa antennas for the Russian army, which protect drones against Kiev's electronic warfare systems.
Moscow's situation in the annexed Crimea is also getting worse. Since May, the Ukrainian army has been intensively attacking with drones the Novorossiya route, which connects Crimea with Rostov-on-Don through the occupied territories. Already on May 21, the Russian authorities banned truck traffic on this route, except for the transport of several categories of particularly important goods. Passenger car drivers are also advised to avoid driving on some sections of this route.
As a result of the partial blockade in Crimea, a fuel crisis began. Residents began to buy cheap products with a long shelf life, and tourists massively gave up trips to local resorts. According to analysts, the Ukrainian forces face two tasks. The Kiev army wants to interrupt the supply chain of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine and isolate Crimea.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
