The Cotroceni ultimatum forces the parties' hand: the scenario of a “new Cioloș Government” is taking shape around PSD and UDMR
The negotiations for the future government fall under the specter of the presidential ultimatum: the existence of a majority in Parliament is mandatory. This condition polarized the political scene, dividing the parliamentary forces into two rigid camps — PSD-UDMR and PNL-USR — between which Romania's stability will be divided in the coming period.
Government of Romania Photo: gov.ro
Political analyst Radu Delicote is of the opinion that, in the current context, the most likely form of government seems to be one around the PSD. PSD would have better chances than a PNL-USR alliance.
“Most likely in the next period we will already see a government that begins to take shape, especially since the president also mentioned that he does not want to appoint a prime minister, unless he has a majority. But be careful, the prime minister, if he has a majority, does not necessarily have to be a political prime minister. What I want to say is that PSD and UDMR, if they manage to collect votes with the other parties, can appoint their own prime minister.
In the current context, this variant would have more mathematical chances than the PNL-USR formula. Why am I saying this? Because the PSD, at least at first sight, would vote in bloc for a new government with the PSD in power. In contrast, there are still many disparities in the PNL. A part of the PNL would go and re-enter the government, while another part would remain in opposition.“
“There's a good chance we'll have a technocrat prime minister”
So far, the only decision taken by the PNL was the one from the National Bureau, in which both the leaders from the center and those from the territory assumed the entry into the opposition. Moreover, Ilie Bolojan and Dominic Fritz, the USR leader, refuse certain government scenarios.
“Based on Ilie Bolojan's statement and obviously considering the wing of his supporters, I think that at the moment we see a polarization in three directions:
- A PSD-UDMR government, with the possible support of national minorities and other deputies and senators who vote in its favor; with a more or less technocratic prime minister; there is a good chance that we will have a technocrat prime minister
- A PNL-USR opposition force, which will try to coalesce around a central political idea;
- Another opposition force, namely AUR, which will function as before.“
AUR is excluded from political consultations but would not want to be in power either. The scenario for them is that of the anticipated or a prime minister to lead the government, according to the statements of the AUR leaders.
“I don't think AUR wants to come to power at the moment. The scenario of early elections is very remote. Not from the perspective of its impossibility, because many analysts have supported the idea that it is difficult to organize early elections. It is not the actual organization that seems so complicated to me, but rather obtaining a political consensus, if I can call it that, that each party should enter the campaign again, and there are real chances that, apart from AUR at least, many deputies and senators will effectively lose their seats, that is, they will no longer get enough votes to keep their mandates. This effect could also be seen at the local level.
Therefore, there is no majority political consensus for the organization of early elections. Obviously, AUR, which is in opposition, communicates in this direction.”says Radu Delicote.
Kelemen Hunor, Sorin Grindeanu Photo: Octa Ganea/Inquam Photos
“I am convinced that UDMR has already negotiated”
The danger of triggering the anticipated could even force a party like PSD to accept the compromise version of a technocrat prime minister. For UDMR, this scenario also means keeping the portfolios until now. According to “Adevărul” sources, the measures taken by the Bolojan government were not always popular among the members of the UDMR cabinet, especially regarding the cuts.
“I think yes, the option of a technocrat prime minister will be tried in order to have the best starting point for political negotiations. The UDMR anyway wants to stay in government and maintains its governmental pragmatism. I am convinced that the UDMR has already negotiated. I don't know if in the sense of portfolios, but I think it negotiated in the sense of remaining in the government or forming a government team based on clear objectives, some “master plans”. says Radu Delicote.
Yes, most likely, a technocratic prime minister could impose a set of reforms and measures based on a broader political consensus. If we look at the electoral calendar, this could be the most convenient solution for the parties.
Who could be the next technocrat prime minister?
The influence of the names proposed for the technocrat prime minister are Radu Burnete and Șerban Matei.
“A government with a technocrat prime minister is a scenario that has a chance”said Nicușor Dan, on Wednesday.
Radu Delicote says that such a prime minister, coming from outside the political sphere, might have a hard word to say about the members of the new Government.
“From my point of view, a technocrat prime minister, if he also negotiates certain portfolios to support him, so that he has a series of close ministers, allies or even other technocrat ministers, could to a certain extent reproduce the scenario of the Cioloș government, but in a different context than the one at the time.
At the moment, this variant may work. But, beware, political consensus is needed in Parliament. Without this consensus, the discussion remains purely theoretical.”
It excludes the possibility that someone who does not currently occupy an important position in Romania will occupy this position.
“The prime minister must be endorsed by an institution, an institutional actor or public opinion, in order to benefit from a moral ascendancy. He must be supported by an institution that people trust and start with this so-called moral ascendancy. I don't think it will be Anca Dragu, I don't think she wants to, for simple professional reasons. We will have a prime minister who will be endorsed by an institution we can trust.
Otherwise, if it's just a technocrat prime minister chosen from a list of names, it won't change the current political situation at all.”the analyst concluded.
