An investment portfolio without sleepless nights. These are the safe havens in 2026.
For an investor who is just putting together a portfolio, the current conditions are particularly uncomfortable – safe bank deposits pay less and the cost of living has just gone up a bit again. It's time to take a look at forms of active investing, thanks to which the investor makes decisions independently and does not entrust his funds, e.g. to a bank.
The good news is that building a portfolio without sleepless nights is not about hunting for one “highest rate of return”.
In this article, I will show you which “safe havens” are really worth looking at at the turn of April and May 2026. We will go from gold, through the US dollar, to treasury bonds, in order to build an investment portfolio that can be managed it won't require sleepless nightsand which will be resistant to market turmoil.
Important: the calculations and information contained in the text are for information purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation or any other form of suggestion for the purchase or sale of financial products. Investment decisions should be preceded by your own analysis of risk and financial situation.
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To begin with, let us remind you that the NBP reference rate fell on March 5, 2026 to 3.75%, the lowest level since 2022, which resulted in a wave of cuts in savings offers.
Average interest rates on newly opened deposits according to NBP data, the number of term deposits decreased to 3.21 percent on an annual basisand the Ministry of Finance lowered retail bond rates from April. At the same time, the Central Statistical Office reading showed that inflation in March 2026 rebounded to 3.0%. with 2.1 percent a month earlier, mainly due to fuel prices and the war in the Middle East.
Is investing in gold still a good idea?
Let's start with the absolute star of recent quarters, i.e. gold.
At the December peak, an ounce of this precious metal was more than 70 percent higher. more expensive than at the beginning of 2025. Silver increased in price by a staggering 170% in the same period. Several overlapping forces are behind the recent rally.
First, central banks buy physical assets gold on an unprecedented scale. Goldman Sachs forecasts that in 2026, bank purchases of this precious metal will average approximately 70 tons per month, which is as much as four times more than before 2022.
Secondly, the de-dollarization process is already underway globally foreign exchange reserves in many developing countries.
Third, retail investors in Asia and Europe are shifting capital into tangible assets out of concern for the value of paper currencies.
However, the same forces that previously pushed up the price of gold are now creating a trap for an investor who is just thinking about purchasing it. Experts increasingly note that the classic relationships between gold, the dollar and bond yields began to break down.
Gold prices are now more influenced by central bank purchases, geopolitical risk and retail demand, and for decades there has been an almost ironclad rule that when interest rates rose, gold fell, and vice versa.
In practice this means that buying an ounce today at $4,800. pays a premium for a feature that the market is just learning to price.
If central banks slow down their gold purchases and geopolitical tensions subside, the correction on this precious metal could be really deep.
The gold price has fallen by almost 27% since its peak. once this year, which only shows the scale of the current volatility in this asset.
Experts classically recommend securing 8-10 percent. capital in bullion to be able to sleep more soundly in politically unstable times.
Historically, gold always appreciates in value over time, although this does not happen as quickly as some extremely volatile assets, such as cryptocurrencies. This is a key detail that is unfortunately often missing from most conversations about gold.
It's not about making money from it, but about it have risk protection. This is the true essence of “safe havens” that allow you to build an investment portfolio without sleepless nights.
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The popular metal in an investor's portfolio serves as an insurance policy, not as a driving force for growth.
Gold and the Polish zloty
For the Polish investor, however, there is another significant risk in the form of the currency. The price of gold in Polish zlotys depends on two variables at the same time, i.e. the dollar and the USD/PLN exchange rate.
If the Fed starts cutting rates harder, the dollar will weaken and gold priced in dollars will rise.
However, the effect for a portfolio quoted in Polish zloty will be much less spectacular, because these two variables will partially neutralize each other.
The very role of the dollar as a “safe haven” is increasingly questioned by many.
Weaker data from the US economy increases the pressure on the Fed to further ease its monetary policy, which only leads to an even cheaper dollar.
For an investor who has so far kept part of their savings in a dollar deposit or a money market fund denominated in dollars, this is a serious warning signal.
The traditional maneuver “in times of panic I run away in dollars” is slowly losing its effectiveness, because more and more often, panic does not strengthen, but on the contrary, weakens the American currency.
Are bonds a good way to save?
However, in Polish reality, retail bonds of the State Treasury remain the heart of a safe investment portfolio.
The Ministry of Finance reduced the rates in April 2026, but inflation-linked bonds still offer interesting returns.
Three-year TOS fixed interest rate they are currently paying 4.40 percent per annum for the entire period, with interest capitalized.
Four-year COI they give 4.75 percent in the first annual interest period, a in subsequent periods, the interest rate is determined based on the inflation rate and a margin of 1.5%..
Ten-year EDOso far a favorite of long-term savers, are starting with 5.35 percent in the first annual interest period, a in subsequent periods, the interest rate is determined based on the inflation rate and a margin of 2.0 percent, with interest capitalized.
The most interesting thing for an investor building a portfolio based on safe havens is what the latest data about the wholesale market tells us. The yield on Polish ten-year bonds dropped below 5%, which means an increase in their prices for holders of securities, but for a new buyer it means a lower expected return.
An anomaly worth exploiting
The market is already pricing in the scenario of continued rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council.
In the context of building a safe portfolio, the current market situation creates an anomaly that may be worth taking advantage of by choosing inflation-indexed retail treasury bonds, e.g. 10-year EDO or fixed-coupon TOS.
As always, the offer for individual clients reacts with a delay to market changes, which is why it is currently… retail bonds offer interest rates that are much higher than their wholesale market counterparts.
This sentence shows the mechanism that the Polish Ministry of Finance uses cyclically.
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Retail coupons fall slower than market rates, so in the phase of monetary policy easing, securities become relatively more and more attractive for the average person.
For a person who is just starting to build an investment portfolio, this means that if the horizon is long and the acceptance of price fluctuations is limited, EDO and TOS do a job that neither a deposit nor a bond fund that charges an additional commission can do.
You just need to remember that from September 2024, early redemption fees have increased, so the money paid to EDO should be money that you will not actually need for a few years.
How to build a safe investment portfolio?
Okay, but how to bring it all together and arrange it without sleepless nights?
It makes the most sense to start by separating the roles. Inflation-indexed bonds, mainly EDO and COI, act as a “backbone” that protects the real value of capital and provides a predictable return.
Gold, in a portion not exceeding 10%. portfolio, acts as insurance against scenarios in which both stocks and debt securities fail.
Instead of being a safe haven, the dollar works better as a currency diversification tool for people who realistically plan their expenses in dollars or have assets denominated in this currency.
Combining all three instruments into one investment portfolio only makes sense when the investor understands that they will not behave the same in times of crisis.
Today's global situation does not offer easy answers to the question of the highest rate of return in a safe haven environment.
Gold is expensive and volatile, retail bonds are paying less than a year ago, and the dollar is losing its appeal as a global reserve currency. In this combination, the greatest value is discipline, not the pursuit of the best percentage.
An investor who buys EDO today with a starting coupon of 5.35% will pay 10%. capital for physical gold and leaves itself a cushion in liquid instruments, it will have a portfolio that is more resistant to most scenarios than the one that throws everything into one “best opportunity” seen in a TV advertisement.
A safe harbor is not a guarantee of profits, but an insurance policy for difficult times.
The marina is uneven, which is why it is so important to understand that political realities are changing investor perceptions of particular asset classes.
Note: the information contained in the text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of applicable regulations, or any other form of advice regarding the purchase or sale of financial products.
