Trump is losing support. Republicans want to save themselves. One state can decide everything
Now all eyes are on Florida, which is expected to present a new districting plan. He can bring the party from three to five seats. A special session of lawmakers is scheduled for next week. Republicans at the national and state levels are counting on DeSantis to implement the White House's priority and ensure that the nine-month-long war over the division of electoral districts will not end in fiasco.
“Frankly, this is the moment when everyone has to get involved, because if we lose the House of Representatives, we will basically completely block the implementation of the program,” says Ford O'Connell, a Republican Party strategist from Florida. – If [DeSantis] If he does it right, it may give a new impetus to his political career.
DeSantis took over as governor in 2018 with Trump's well-timed endorsement. He became a rising Republican star during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to him challenging the president in the 2024 election. The two have become closer since Trump's victory, but they don't always see eye to eye.
— All eyes are now on Ron DeSantis and Florida. It's a bit poetic, says one Republican activist who asked to remain anonymous. — DeSantis has his orders: take off the gloves, as Democrats did in Virginia and California, and redraw as many Republican voting districts as the law allows.
How far will Republicans go?
One Florida Republican Party official familiar with the governor's views says DeSantis “would still like to do something about changing the boundaries of voting districts.” – But I realize that atmosphere before the 2026 elections “is already formed and it will be difficult for Republicans to maintain a majority in the House of Representatives, regardless of what happens in Florida,” the source added.
There are also legal questions about how far DeSantis and Republican lawmakers in Florida can go in changing electoral district boundaries, raising doubts about whether they will actually be able to do so. Valid in the state a strict prohibition on changing the boundaries of electoral districts to obtain party benefits or to help or harm incumbent politicians. Democrats say any attempted change is illegal and would violate this constitutional prohibition.
For his part, DeSantis has already pushed through his own redistricting map, which is a big reason why national Republicans are hoping he can do it again.
In 2022, the new map helped Republicans secure a 20-to-eight advantage and ultimately capture four seats — which DeSantis said was key to the GOP regaining the House majority at the time. This map has withstood legal challenges, but now that control of the House of Representatives is at stake, the boundary change is sure to trigger a flurry of lawsuits.
One factor in the governor's favor is that state and federal courts may be reluctant to order a new map drawn so close to the midterm elections and will leave Florida's map unchanged for now.
Pre-election fever
DeSantis claimed the last one US census was flawed and deprived the state of at least one congressional seat. He also pointed to ongoing population growth since the COVID-19 pandemic and a pending U.S. Supreme Court decision to change Louisiana's voting district boundaries, which could force changes to the map.
The governor has already singled out one district — which was represented by Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick until she resigned under pressure on Tuesday — as one that should be redrawn.
But the governor, who has already delayed the special session by a week, has yet to release the map, with just a few days left before the session begins. Legislative leaders said it is up to DeSantis to ensure the work proceeds as planned.
“I'm sure by the time we get to Tallahassee the map will be ready and the Assembly will consider it in due time,” said Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez, a Republican from Miami.
Ron DeSantis September 25, 2025GIORGIO VIERA / AFP / AFP
Some Republicans in Congress who have been skeptical of the idea of changing electoral district boundaries say the results in Virginia could have left the GOP react quickly.
“I don't like this change of district boundaries during the census, but in light of what Virginia is doing, we may have to react to it,” said Florida Republican Congressman John Rutherford, who has previously warned against changing district boundaries.
However, others fear what an aggressive plan might bring the opposite effect.
Difficult political climate in the USA
Alex Alvarado, a well-known Florida political consultant who has worked with many prominent Republicans, recently published an analysis suggesting that new redistricting would be counterproductive to the Republican Party given the current political climate. He suggested that it would provide no net gain for Republicans and would give Democrats a chance to regain seats.
“We have already consolidated the Democrats so much into tight districts that the only thing that can be done by changing the boundaries is to get them out of there,” Alvarado said in an interview.
We have to put these Democratic voters somewhere.
Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, also cautions against expecting significant gains from the state's “fair districting” laws, which prohibit partisan redistricting.
— I don't think it will be possible to create districts with a decidedly Republican character throughout the state, he says. — I think we'll just have to wait and see what the legislative assembly proposes.
DeSantis fight
Democrats are already warning they will cause trouble for DeSantis. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries noted on Wednesday that the party's politicians will focus on Florida and “finish” the redistricting war that Trump started. “Our message to Florida Republicans is 'have fun and find out,'” he told reporters.
DeSantis didn't care about that at the bill-signing ceremony in Jacksonville.
— “We will attack Florida.” You're welcome,” DeSantis said of Jeffries. “I'll pay for you to come to Florida and campaign. I'll put you up at the Florida Governor's Mansion. We'll take you fishing. We will do it all.
For DeSantis, the outcome of the redistricting game is both political and personal. His second term ends in January. There is speculation that he once again has his eye on ambitions beyond the state of Florida.
— If he can pull this off, it would at least give him a chance to get back into Trump's good graces and maybe even raise his profile in the broader Republican movement – says the second Republican strategist.
For now, the White House seems content to let him take the lead — at least publicly.
Trump's political director, James Blair, who is from Florida and was DeSantis' deputy chief of staff, said Wednesday that he was not involved in the process of drawing Florida's map. “If [DeSantis] decides to do it, draws it legally and we'll see what happens,” he told CNN.
“I'm not talking to the governor, I haven't talked to these people about it. But again… I think their track record shows that they know how to draw voting district lines in accordance with Florida law and the Florida Constitution, and we'll see what they do next week,” he added.
