Donald Trump and Viktor Orban with the support of PiS. This is a mistake, but there are also rational elements
For years, the leading European Union countries, led by Germany, have pursued policies towards Moscow that are extremely unfavorable from our point of view. This was expressed both in the issue of military security, i.e. in terms of NATO rather than the European Union, and in matters of economic security.
All this, of course, does not change the fact that in every aspect – whether military, economic or any other – membership in the European Union and NATO has been and is beneficial to us. At the same time, however, it is difficult not to notice that both during the rule of PiS and the rule of the leftist and liberal forces, there was no shortage of situations that clearly indicated the disrespectful attitude of our Western allies towards Poland – and more broadly – the region. Which is an indication that we should look for allies in the region who could constitute a counterweight to the so-called old Europe.
The fact that PiS found an ally in Victor Orban, who was never a counterweight and always betrayed Warsaw, is, of course, a disgrace to the Polish right. The alliance of Hungary ruled by Orban and Poland ruled by PiS was to a greater extent a result of the fact that both Budapest and Warsaw were increasingly moving away from democratic values and principles. The problem is that, as the famous Colombian writer and Nobel Prize winner in Literature Gabriel Garcia Marquez once wrote, “the failure of some answers does not invalidate the questions.”
Jarosław Kaczyński, Viktor OrbanPAP
The essence of the drama of Polish politics is that when asked who to build a coalition with in case the EU majority acts in a direction unfavorable to Poland, the Polish right always gives the wrong answer. Liberals, on the other hand, provide no answer because they rarely, if ever, ask themselves such a question. The liberal belief that similar values mean that conflicts of interest cease to exist is an expression of naivety from which, unfortunately, as everything indicates, not everyone on the liberal side has recovered.
Donald Trump? PiS fell into the same trap as Orban
In the case of Donald Trump, who not only feels a strange weakness for Vladimir Putin, but, even worse, seeks to dismantle the international system based on values and law, PiS has fallen into the same trap as in the case of Orban. It is expressed in unconditional support even when conflicting interests are clearly visible. It is not in Poland's interest to even replace the so-called rule based international orderthat is, an international order based on law, a policy based on force.
To imagine the threat posed by Donald Trump's ideas, it is enough to imagine the Germany of his dreams, a country armed to the teeth but at the same time ruled by nationalists guided solely by force. The paradox of PiS is that, while constantly attacking modern Germany, Jarosław Kaczyński's party does not ask itself whether this modern Federal Republic is not a safer neighbor for us than the Germany that Trump wants to create.
If you add Trump's sympathy for Putin, it becomes clear that the Polish right's enthusiasm for Trump is a pure intellectual aberration.
War with Russia is not the most likely scenario
One of the former leaders of Polish diplomacy, who came from the establishment of the Polish People's Republic, notes in an interview with Onet that while Donald Tusk said that “we live in pre-war times”, PiS actually believes it. If so, he must stick with Trump, even if he has nothing but flaws. As our interlocutor stated, no one among the Polish elites really believes that the Germans, French, Italians and Spanish will defend Poland in the event of a Russian attack. Nobody believes that the Russians will not attack Poland because they will be afraid of the Germans, French, Spanish and Italians mentioned above.
He adds that in the opinion of Polish elites, only Ukrainians, who engage the majority of Russian land forces, and Americans are a real guarantee that Russia will never dare to attack Poland. If so, then “even assuming that Trump may be mad”, it is better for him to overdo it and survive his presidency than, by acting seemingly logically, to cause the Americans to withdraw their troops from Poland.
Donald TrumpBONNIE CASH / POOL / PAP
To the counterargument that the liberal side does not want to enter into any agreement with the USA, Onet's interlocutor replies that it is of course true. But the thing is that avoiding conflict in a situation where it is in Poland's interest to keep American troops here at all costs is not enough. And he adds that PiS's mistake is not that – as Radosław Sikorski put it – “doing a favor” to Trump, but that it does it in an ostentatious and primitive way.
The problem with this understanding of foreign policy is that a war with Russia is not the most likely scenario, and Poland should also play in the scenario in which Putin's war with Ukraine turns out to be only a paroxysm of the dying (and unfortunately not defeated in 1990) Soviet empire.
Onet's interlocutor, when asked about this, does not deny this line of reasoning, but states that his post-communist formation is, in a sense, closer to PiS than to Polish liberals in this respect, because “both we and PiS live a bit like in August 1939, i.e. in the belief that our allies will betray us and the war will come after all.” And he adds: “Please note that when Poland sent tanks to Ukraine, PiS's foreign policy was criticized – speaking, for example, about the plan to occupy western Ukraine – by Radosław Sikorski, Roman Giertych and his supporters, but no one from the former SLD.”
