Surprise verdict in the Champions League! » They would win the trophy for the first time in history
Article by Alexandru Tomuțiu – Published Monday, November 24, 2025 9:47 p.m. / Updated Monday, November 24, 2025 9:49 p.m.
The statisticians have done the math and are expecting a surprise in the current Champions League season. According to the calculations, a team that has not won the trophy so far would prevail in the current season.
The first four rounds of the Champions League group have passed, and Bayern is the leader with 12 points. Arsenal and Inter have the same number of points.
Surprise after 4 rounds: Arsenal, favorite to win the Champions League according to statisticians' calculations
According to the calculations made by Football Meets Data, Arsenal would have the best chance of getting their hands on the coveted trophy, with a percentage of 22 percent. Next is Bayern (14%), and Manchester City completes the podium (12%).
Fourth is PSG, last season's winner, with a 10% chance. Real Madrid and Barcelona are seen with 7 and 6 percent chances of winning the trophy respectively.
Cristi Chivu's Inter is the 7th favourite, with a percentage of 6 percent.
Football Meets Data's post
No fewer than 25 teams have less than one percent chance of lifting the trophy. Among them are big names such as Juventus, Borussia Dortmund, Napoli or Tottenham.
If the prediction proves correct, Arsenal will record their first Champions League in the club's history. The Londoners have no European trophy. However, they have 13 Premier League titles.
Arsenal – Tottenham, the derby of the 12th stage of the Premier League photo: Imago Images
Mikel Arteta's side lead the Premier League with 29 points from the first 4 legs. For the “gunners” there is a gala match with Bayern. The two will battle for the top spot on Wednesday, November 26 at 10:00 p.m.
