The Strait of Hormuz has reopened, but the US-Iran truce won't bring real cheapness at the pump. The experts' explanations
The first ships have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran agreed to reopen the key point for global trade following the truce signed with the United States. But this does not provide much security on the oil market, say the analysts consulted by “Adevărul” who explained that there is a risk of intensifying the crisis.
Iran wants to tax ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Photo by Shutterstock
Analyst Adrian Negrescu explained to “Adevărul” that this truce could actually bring the calm before the storm and that in the end prices could be much higher than now because of the pa taxes that Iran wants to put on them.
“This truce brings a breath of oxygen to the whole world and the hope that Hormuz will be unblocked, which could de-escalate the market. But I am very afraid that it is the calm before the storm, that if the US and Iran do not reach an agreement, we will have a worsening of the oil crisis. Leaving the responsibility of transit through the Strait of Hormuz to Iran is very serious, because it can tax ships, which would lead to large increases in oil prices.
There is talk of a tax of 2 million dollars on each ship, which means exorbitant sums for oil. The US should discuss a liberalization of traffic, which would make the transit through the Straits run normally. This truce could hide a possible blackmail on oil shipments to the world economy. They will decide how to share the transit”, said Adrian Negrescu for “Adevărul”.
Gresoi: We will not see real discounts at the pump
Even the energy expert Silviu Gresoi was not too optimistic about the effects of this US-Iran truce on the oil market.
“Oil fell rapidly by almost 15-20% after the announcement of the ceasefire and the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, but we are talking about a correction, not a change in trend. Even in this scenario, new transit fees and geopolitical risk keep costs high. Basically, the market is not entering normality, but a zone of controlled volatility.
For consumers, this means one simple thing: we won't see real cheapness at the pump, but at most a temporary stabilization at levels that are still highe”, explained energy expert Silviu Gresoi for “Adevărul”.
Codîrlăsu: The price of oil will be volatile for a long time
For his part, the analyst Adrian Codîrlaşu declared for “Adevărul” that the price of oil will remain volatile for a long time to come. “The war is not over. The price of oil will remain volatile for a long time to come. The parties are still negotiating, let's see what agreement they reach. In theory, a drop in the price of oil will also lead to a drop in fuel prices, but we won't be going back to the improvements very quickly. Uncertainty persists“, declared Codîrlașu.
Normalization of jet fuel supply will take several more months
The head of IATA said on Wednesday that it would take several months for jet fuel supplies to return to normal, even if Iran were to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This statement comes amid the recent agreement between the United States and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, which calls for a two-week ceasefire in exchange for the full and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital strategic point for the transportation of oil. US President Donald Trump has suspended the bombing of Iran for this period, making the continuation of negotiations conditional on compliance with the agreement on the Straits.
Iran truce gives Trump a partial political victory, but at what cost? – BBC analysis
Israel welcomed the truce but clarified that it does not apply to Lebanon, where the conflict with Hezbollah continues. In Iran, state media and regional allies presented the deal as a diplomatic victory, stressing that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is the main sticking point of the negotiation.
Although the ceasefire announcement sent oil prices lower, IATA warns that the effects on aviation fuel supplies will not be felt immediately, and full normalization of the supply chain will take several months. In this context, airlines must continue to carefully manage resources and flight planning, as the short-term impact remains significant.
The price of oil has fallen sharply
Global oil prices fell sharply and stock markets rallied after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week conditional truce that includes reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz sea route.
Benchmark Brent crude fell about 15.9 percent to $92.30 (£68.87) a barrel, while U.S.-traded crude was nearly 16.5 percent cheaper at $93.80.
However, prices remain higher than before the start of the conflict on February 28. At that time, oil was trading around 70 dollars per barrel.
The cost of energy rose after oil and gas supplies from the Middle East were severely disrupted following Iran's threats to attack ships trying to transit the strait in retaliation for US and Israeli airstrikes.
Iran attacked Kuwait despite the ceasefire
Iran launched attacks against Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Wednesday, following new airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities, despite the ceasefire accepted by the US and Iran.
“The missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait came hours after oil installations on the (Iranian) island of Lavan were hit“, the quoted station specified, after both Gulf states signaled that they had been hit by Iranian attacks.
Lavan Island Refinery “he was the target of a cowardly attack” around 6:30 in the morning, there are no victims, but the attack caused a fire at the refinery facilities, Iranian television also mentioned.
