An election forecast predicts a major victory for Péter Magyar's opposition over Viktor Orbán in Hungary's election on Sunday. Score indicated
An analysis of the five most recent opinion polls conducted by the Median Institute shows that Tisza's party will obtain a comfortable majority, writes Reuters.
The opposition Tisza party can secure a two-thirds parliamentary majority in Sunday's election, which will allow it to amend the Constitution and key laws needed to unlock EU funds, according to a forecast published Wednesday by the Median polling institute.
The poll confirms that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party face their biggest challenge to governance in 16 years under the onslaught of the opposition led by Péter Magyar.
According to Median, Tisza will win between 138 and 142 seats in the 199-member parliament, according to an estimate based on an analysis of the institute's five most recent opinion polls in late February and March.
Fidesz is expected to get between 49 and 55 seats, while the far-right “Our Fatherland” (Mi Hazank) party may win five or six seats.
In Hungary's parliament, a party needs 133 seats to obtain the qualified majority needed to amend the constitution and key laws.
Fidesz held a two-thirds majority during the 2010 mandate and used this power to approve a new constitution and adopt and amend several fundamental laws, including the electoral law.
The Median polling institute, which has one of the strongest reputations for forecasting in Hungary, said the five polls considered had a total sample of 5,000 people and were conducted by three separate call centers.
Median correctly predicted Orban's landslide victory in the last election four years ago, although he slightly overestimated the support for the opposition.
While most polls have indicated an advantage for Tisza, Fidesz points to polls that still show Orban's party heading for victory. Opponents of Fidesz claim that these polls were mainly conducted by institutes with financial or personal ties to the ruling party.
Hungarian analysts pointed to Tisza's lead in the polls, but preferred to remain cautious about predicting the results.
In an interview with HotNews last week, Andrea Virág, director of strategy at the Republikon Institute, warned that Fidesz's resources and mobilization, as well as the electoral system, mean that the outcome of the April 12 election cannot be accurately predicted.
“There could be surprises,” she said.
