Targeting Iran's ability to launch Shahed drones could be the key to opening the Strait of Hormuz and stopping attacks on the Gulf states, but can the US outplay them? asks the NYT, in an analysis dedicated to the advantage these cheap drones offer in war.
US military officials say the recent airstrikes have significantly affected Iran's drone production capabilities, but analysts warn that the technology's wide availability and low cost could make it difficult to stop the attacks completely.
Images released last week by US Central Command show an industrial complex near the city of Isfahan before and after an airstrike. The site was identified as a drone production facility, and officials described its destruction as “a major new blow” to “Iran's defense industrial base.”
The strikes are intended to reassure US allies in the Persian Gulf that ongoing drone attacks targeting cities and energy infrastructure can be stopped. However, experts warn that these assurances may be too optimistic.
“The problem with such technology is that it has become democratized,” said Maximilian Bremer of the Stimson Center, an organization that analyzes global security. “If they're relatively easy to build, bend aluminum, 3D print, or use a simple motorcycle engine, then it's harder to trace where they come from.”
Others were more direct about Iran's ability to continue production. “Iran will be able to produce a larger number if this war continues,” estimates Yasir Atalan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Iran's use of cheap Shahed drones has become a key factor in the conflict. Built from commercially available components, these drones can be assembled in small workshops, making them difficult to identify and destroy by conventional military methods.
Despite sustained bombing by the United States and Israel, Iran continues to launch drone and missile attacks in the Gulf region, albeit at a reduced level. According to analysts, Iran is currently launching between 70 and 90 drones a day, down from more than 400 launched on March 1.
Many of these drones are intercepted. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reported shooting down dozens of drones and ballistic missiles in recent days. However, some achieve their targets. In a recent attack, six US Army reservists were killed in the port of Shuaiba in Kuwait.
The fact that they can be launched with unsophisticated means makes them difficult to combat They can be carried in vans and launched with minimal infrastructure, allowing operators to avoid detection. Once launched, they can travel up to 1,500 miles using GPS guidance, at an estimated cost of $35,000 per drone.
By comparison, defending against them is much more expensive. The Gulf states often use interceptor missiles that cost millions of dollars each, as well as fighter jets and attack helicopters to neutralize these drones which are in many ways slow cruise missiles.
Military planners now face a key question: how many drones Iran still has or can produce, and whether its defense systems can keep up. Estimates of the number of drones before the war vary considerably, from thousands to tens of thousands.
Zelenski warns Europe: Drones are no longer the domain of a demented person like Putin
In any case, and if the strikes severely degrade Iran's ability to produce drones, it could receive foreign support. Russia, which has previously collaborated with Iran on drone technology, could supplement production. Gordon B. Davis, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis who served as deputy secretary in NATO's defense investment division, said recently that Russia is working to produce up to 1,000 drones a day.
“Iran adapted quickly, targeting air defense systems, radars and command and control nodes, rather than simply trying to compete symmetrically,” Davis said.
The strategic stakes go beyond the battlefield. Continued drone attacks threaten navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global energy supplies. They also put pressure on Western military resources, as every interceptor used in the Gulf can no longer be used in other areas, including Ukraine.
Ukraine, which has faced similar threats from Russia, has sent experts to help combat these attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky said more than 200 Ukrainian specialists had been sent to the Middle East to share experience in using low-cost interception methods.
Iran's drone program is the product of four decades of development, having been established to meet combat needs and financial pressure during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Over time, the country has refined its designs, relying largely on domestic production due to international sanctions.
According to the Defense Intelligence Agency, Tehran first used drones for “cross-border, long-range strike operations” in 2018 for an attack against the Islamic State group in eastern Syria. They were later used in attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia in 2019, for which the Houthis claimed credit. Iran first supplied drones to the Kremlin in 2022, transporting them across the Caspian Sea on ships with their maritime tracking devices turned off or removed, Ukrainian intelligence officials said.
Experts say the current approach prioritizes scalability over sophistication. Damien Spleeters of Conflict Armament Research described it as “simplicity, reliance on commercial components, quantity over quality”.
Even with airstrikes targeting production facilities, analysts warn that Iran's decentralized manufacturing model could limit their effectiveness.
“Obviously, the US is trying to hit production sites, but there are different ways to produce these structures,” said Atalan, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It's not necessarily easy to track. Decentralized production is possible. You don't need big facilities for it.”
