Putin's mistake that will soon cost Russia. Ex-Soviet space expert: 'There's no way out of this'
Historian and international relations expert Sarah Paine, from Johns Hopkins University and the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, explains in a podcast the blunder made by the Russian Federation that will affect the medium and long term future of this country.
The Russian army has not yet succeeded in breaking the front in Ukraine. PHOTO: Pofimedia
The imperial ambitions of the Russian Federation and the miscalculations of Moscow's strategists are ironically hastening the decline of the Kremlin's power. To defy the European Union and the United States of America, Moscow has courted China intensively with the aim of obtaining an alliance that does not even place it on an equal footing with Beijing.
Historian and international relations expert Sarah Paine of Johns Hopkins University and the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs explains in a podcast why this error will cost Russia dearly, even if it appears to be helping it for now.
In the podcast by Pyotr Kurzin, one of the global voices of the Kyiv Post, Sarah Paine talks about the Kremlin's blunder and how Russia is slowly beginning to sink. Known for her direct style, which combines military history with hard economic analysis, the American expert makes a clear diagnosis of Russia and explains it using clear arguments, just as a doctor enlightens his patient about the condition and helps him to heal. It's just that the Kremlin “patient” is known to refuse any “treatment”.
How Russia Declined
Paine believes that Russia missed a huge opportunity to become a modern power after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But instead of investing in infrastructure when he could benefit from high oil prices and promote the rule of law, Putin chose the path of wars and attacked Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine in turn. Even if he defeats Ukraine, as he did in the wars with Chechnya and Georgia, the price paid will be enormous. And Russia is already settling. Currently, the “tsar” has pushed his country into a “vassal state” type treaty with China and is totally dependent on Beijing for technology and capital.
The American gives an example in this regard. “In 1980, the Soviet Union had a GDP six times that of China. Now, if we move to GNP (Gross National Product), today China has a GNP 14 times greater than that of Russia,” argues Paine.
Although Putin and those around him make no secret of the fact that they want to restore the former Soviet Union and restore Russia to its former strength, in reality the country is a shadow of what it once was.
It is only a shadow of the former Soviet Union
“Russia is a shadow of the Soviet Union. It's going to be a vassal state. It's already a vassal state of China and there's no way it's going to get out of that anytime soon. Russia is finished”, believes Sarah Paine.
Even Vladimir Putin's future does not look rosy in this context. And after Putin's death, whether natural or induced, the country will be torn apart by a war for specific power. “Dictatorships are incredibly ineffective. They squander wealth and suppress growth because no one is guaranteed to benefit from their labor; there is no rule of law. Putin will continue to gamble until he dies. And when he dies, it will be a power struggle without management,” predicts Paine.
With other rulers, given its enormous resources and power, Russia today would have been a colossus and a prosperous and democratic state. But he missed a unique chance in the early 2000s, Paine says.
Huge chance missed by Russia
“There was this wonderful opportunity for Russia … it was very difficult after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but there was a wonderful opportunity around 2000 when oil prices went up a lot. That would have been the opportunity to clean up the legal system, make it more favorable to small businesses, so they can make money and keep their money and improve the road system. Instead, Putin came to power on a diet of wars. He comes to power in the second Chechen war, leveling Chechnya to keep it… then doing the 2008 war to take Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia. These things are popular in Russia”she points out.
In the 13th hour, Russia would have another chance, but they seem to be kicking them and refusing to catch the “last train”. Sarah Paine explains what it's all about.
“Unlike China, Russia doesn't have this vibrant trade tradition. China always has. Ever since the Silk Road, China has produced high-end goods that everyone wanted. Back then it was silks and porcelain. Now it's all kinds of electrical appliances. I'm sure you have some in your apartment, and they're very good. So Russia is finished. They're back under the 'Mongolian yoke'. Their only way out would be to stop, withdraw from Ukraine, pay reparations and return to Europe. But that will never happen.”Sarah Paige concluded.
