The first session of the new week brought a continuation of good moods on the domestic stock exchange. This time, smaller companies, grouped in sWIG80, gained the most of the main indices during the day and broke a historical record. mWIG40 and broad WIG also reached new highs. For now, WIG20 has stopped on its way to its record, which the index is just over 20 percent away from. The rebound on the raw materials market after the events in Venezuela supported the prices of KGHM, whose price approached PLN 300 per share.
The tone for the day's stock market events was set by the weekend coup in Venezuela, where the US military intervened in Venezuela, as a result of which the president of the South American country, Nicolas Maduro, was arrested and taken to the United States. The prices of gold, silver and other precious metals, perceived as safe havens, rose. At the same time, oil became cheaper. Other metals, such as copper, gained strongly due to investors' fear of further supply restrictions in 2026, which may come along with geopolitical tensions.
The mood on the stock markets continued to be excellent. Let us remind you that the WSE said goodbye to the old year (in the December 30 session) and welcomed the new year (January 2 session) in a champagne mood. However, the Bankier.pl fear and greed index still suggests the lack of greed among market investors. Our index is focused on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, but also includes data from the treasury bond market and the activity of Bankier.pl readers, who constitute the largest investor community in Poland. The index takes into account 6 different components, which we describe here.
Monday brought strong increases in valuations in Asia. Indices in Europe were clearly gaining at the end of trading in Warsaw (DAX +1.1%, EuroStoxx50 1.1%, FTSE100 0.5%). On Wall Street in the USA, the S&P500 gained 0.75%, and the Nasdaq rose by over 0.9%. Against this background, WIG20 looked calm, after a strong opening of the year on Friday and an increase of almost 2.5%. on Monday it consolidated near the peaks of the bull market. Of these levels, the WIG20 historical record is approximately 21 percent short.
At the end of the day, WIG20 returned 0.12%. However, WIG was in the positive, gaining 0.13%, and in the first part of the session it set a new peak of 120,848.30 points. The better attitude of the broad market is a result of the increase in sWIG80 by 1.01%. and the index setting a new record of 30,725.27 points, as well as the good performance of mWIG40, which also reached the highest level in history (8,491.30 points), and at the end of the day gained 0.73%. The turnover on the broad market amounted to over PLN 2.54 billion, of which PLN 2.12 billion concerned WIG20 companies.
Analysts did not overestimate the importance of the events in Venezuela for the broader stock market, apart from companies from the fuel sector. American Exxon Mobil and Chevron gained 2 percent, respectively. and 4.5 percent after 90 minutes of trading in New York, discounting the possibilities of exploiting oil from Venezuela. Cheaper gas and weakness in the oil market had an impact on the Polish Orlen, whose price fell by 1.53%.
“The impact of events in Venezuela on the global economy is too small to weigh on equity markets. This also applies to oil. Investors have had time to look at the data and in the most optimistic scenario, it will take two or three years to achieve a significant impact,” said Christopher Dembik, senior investment advisor at Pictet Asset Management.
This week, investors' attention will focus on a series of data from the US labor market, including monthly official job creation data released on Friday, which may influence the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2026.
Returning to WIG20, apart from Orlen, mBank was more overvalued (-3%), and over 1%. the share prices of Orange and Grupa Kęty also reflected. In total, the prices of 13 largest companies were below the mark. The leader of the increase in this segment was the price of KGHM (4.58%), whose shares paid PLN 297.30 during the day with a capitalization exceeding PLN 59 billion. The prices were supported by the price rising by over 3%. copper and by over 7 percent silver. Thanks to the growth of recent months, KGHM returned to the ranking of the largest mining companies in the world.
In the group of companies listed in mWIG40, Text performed poorly (-2.43%). The company estimates that at the end of the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, the value of the group's monthly recurring subscription revenue (MRR – Monthly Recurring Revenue) decreased by 1.7%. year to year and by 1.1 percent compared to the end of the previous quarter.
In the sWIG80 index by 5.39%. DataWalk's price increased. The company's president, Paweł Wieczyński, told PAP Biznes that in 2026 the company may close about 5-6 contracts, and one of its goals is to add several new logos from the Fortune 500 list to its customer list.
