At least 40 percent profit per year. Here are the ETFs that could deliver it in 2026.
In 2026, there is no mechanism that will guarantee 40%. profit. However, there are systems of assets that in a favorable environment, they have historically been able to achieve such a result — and even higher. The common denominator here is technology as the engine of the boom and semiconductors as the most cyclical element of the AI infrastructure, which in good years grows faster than the market.
Two wallets are intentionally left unleveraged because even without leverage, you can achieve parameters resembling a stock “rocket”but with a greater chance of disappointment in a worse market environment. The next two use 2x ETFs, because if someone really wants to estimate 40%. profit as the underlying result, we usually have to accept that the price for such ambition is paid with volatility and drawdowns. Something for something.
Important: the companies and valuations included in the text are for information purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation or any other form of suggestion for the purchase or sale of financial products. Investment decisions should be preceded by your own analysis of risk and financial situation.
Four portfolios based solely on ETFs
Of course, it is impossible to ensure a minimum of 40%. profit in 2026 based on history – even if the historical data shows years with such results. However, we can build four sample ETF portfolios that: historically, they could exceed 40 percent. in favorable years (especially 2023–2024) and show how much risk it requires.
We assume two estimates:
- 2026 estimate (optimistic) — extrapolation of the 2023-2024 average (very aggressive assumption)
- 2026 estimate (more conservative) — result from a 3-year period (annualized), usually lower.
Portfolio 1 – Unleveraged, still aggressive
Estimation 2026 (optimistic): approx. 46.7 percent
Estimation 2026 (3 years annualized): approx. 32.9 percent
|
ETF |
ISIN |
Libra |
2024 |
2023 |
|
iShares S&P 500 Info Tech Sector UCITS ETF (Acc) |
IE00B3WJKG14 |
35 percent |
45.92 percent |
52.08 percent |
|
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF |
IE00BMC38736 |
35 percent |
30.98 percent |
67.09 percent |
|
iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (Acc) |
IE00B53SZB19 |
30 percent |
33.29 percent |
49.07 percent |
Why these assets: maximizing exposure to the bull market engine of recent years, i.e. large technology companies + IT sector + semiconductors (the most cyclical and volatile element of the AI/compute chain).
Check also: What to invest in in 2026. Ten companies with growth potential [GIEŁDA]
Portfolio 2 – Thematic, unleveraged
Estimation 2026 (optimistic): approx. 44.5 percent
Estimation 2026 (3 years annualized): approx. 31.2 percent
|
ETF |
ISIN |
Libra |
2024 |
2023 |
|
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF |
IE00BMC38736 |
30 percent |
30.98 percent |
67.09 percent |
|
iShares S&P 500 Info Tech Sector UCITS ETF (Acc) |
IE00B3WJKG14 |
30 percent |
45.92 percent |
52.08 percent |
|
iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (Acc) |
IE00B53SZB19 |
20 percent |
33.29 percent |
49.07 percent |
|
WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF (Acc) |
IE00BDVPNG13 |
20 percent |
18.47 percent |
49.75 percent |
Why these assets: semiconductors + IT sector + Nasdaq as the core of growth, and AI ETF as additional exposure to companies from the artificial intelligence sector (more dispersed than a single sector, but still risky).
Portfolio 3 – Chips + Nasdaq 2x
Estimation 2026 (optimistic): approx. 65.2 percent
Estimation 2026 (3 years annualized): approx. 42.7 percent
|
ETF |
ISIN |
Libra |
2024 |
2023 |
|
Amundi Nasdaq-100 Daily (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF (Acc) |
FR0010342592 |
50 percent |
52.51 percent |
110.24 percent |
|
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF |
IE00BMC38736 |
30 percent |
30.98 percent |
67.09 percent |
|
iShares S&P 500 Info Tech Sector UCITS ETF (Acc) |
IE00B3WJKG14 |
20 percent |
45.92 percent |
52.08 percent |
Why these assets: if we really insist on +40%. profit as an estimate, then without leverage this is usually only a very optimistic scenario. 2x leverage on Nasdaq increases the potential, but also dramatically increases the risk (large drawdowns).
Portfolio 4 – 2x various US assets (riskiest)
Estimation 2026 (optimistic): approx. 66.3 percent
Estimation 2026 (3 years annualized): approx. 42.1 percent
|
ETF |
ISIN |
Libra |
2024 |
2023 |
|
Amundi Nasdaq-100 Daily (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF (Acc) |
FR0010342592 |
55 percent |
52.51 percent |
110.24 percent |
|
Xtrackers S&P 500 2x Leveraged Daily Swap UCITS ETF (Acc) |
LU0411078552 |
35 percent |
53.29 percent |
41.97 percent |
|
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF |
IE00BMC38736 |
10 percent |
30.98 percent |
67.09 percent |
Why these assets: the core are two US indices at 2x (Nasdaq + S&P 500) – historically they can bring over 40%. in a bull market, but in a bear market/volatility they can give results very quickly. Semiconductors are added as an “afterburn” to the cycle.
See also: Yes 10 thousand PLN turns into 927 thousand PLN in less than a year. You can try to repeat this “golden shot” [TABELE]
What counts is patience and nerves of steel
The greatest paradox of these portfolios is that their strength is not in the cleverness of selection, but in the willingness to endure periods when everything looks like a mistake.
In practice, the outcome in 2026 may be determined not by whether technology grows, but by whether it does so smoothly, because with large fluctuations, leverage in particular begins to play against patience. So if your goal is +40%, in a sense you are investing in a scenario: falling rates, rising corporate profits and risk appetite, and not in the “product” itself, which is an ETF.
The most reasonable test of such a strategy is not the question “how much can I earn”, but “how deep a decline can I wait without changing my plan”. And only when the answer to the second question is certain, these portfolios start to become an informed bet on a specific market scenario.
Author: Grzegorz Kubera, journalist of Business Insider Polska
Note: the information contained in the text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of applicable regulations, or any other form of advice regarding the purchase or sale of financial products.
