Billions of euros from the new “border tax”. Poland will also make money

In the base scenario, the forecast revenues from the CBAM border equalization fee will amount to EUR 5-9 billion for the entire EU in 2030, and in the case of Poland EUR 0.4-0.8 billion in 2030 – estimated eNSPIRE, CAKE/KOBIZE and IOŚiPIB analysts in the report. They added that in the scenario of the extended scope of CBAM, in the case of Poland, these revenues may increase to EUR 1.1-2.1 billion in 2030.

“In the baseline scenario, projected revenues are EUR 0.4-0.8 billion in 2030 and EUR 0.5-1.9 billion in 2035.” – it was written in the report.

It was added that in the scenario of extended use of CBAM, in the case of Poland, they will increase to EUR 1.1-2.1 billion in 2030 and EUR 1.4-5.3 billion in 2035.

For the EU as a whole, the current scope of CBAM in the reference scenario would result in projected revenues of EUR 5-9 billion in 2030 (in 2024 prices) and EUR 6-22 billion in 2035, and in the case of an extended scope of this levy it would be EUR 16-31 billion in 2030 and EUR 20-75 billion in 2035.

In the report, experts analyzed the potential budget revenues resulting from the use of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) for the entire EU and for Poland, with an emphasis on 2030 and 2035.

The analysis took into account two scenarios:

• reference, limited to the current range of products covered by CBAM,
• an extended scenario that assumes a broader scope both horizontally (additional energy-intensive products) and vertically (derived products).

The report indicates that the increase in revenues is primarily due to the progressive increase in the CBAM factor in the years 2026–2035, reflecting the phasing out of free emission allowances under the EU ETS.

Experts explained that with the withdrawal of free allowances by 2035, the CBAM factor will reach 100%, which will significantly increase the share of the so-called emissions embedded in imported products subject to CBAM levies.

At the same time, the degree of carbon price convergence in third countries has a strong moderating effect. In the strong adjustment variant, in which foreign emission prices reach 75%. price levels in the EU ETS by 2035, EU revenues from CBAM are reduced by a factor of three to four compared to the status quo – it was indicated.

CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) is a mechanism for adjusting prices at the borders of the European Union taking into account CO2 emissions, the aim of which is to prevent the “leakage” of CO2 emissions outside the EU and to equalize the costs related to CO2 emissions for goods imported from third countries and goods produced in the EU covered by the Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).

On November 21, the Sejm adopted a draft law implementing the CBAM (border equalization fee) mechanism into the Polish legal system. There is a transition period until the end of 2025 – importers of goods covered by CBAM (including steel, cement, fertilizers, electricity) submit quarterly reports. From 2026, they will declare the amount of imported goods and the related emissions, bearing the proportional cost of CBAM certificates. (PAP Business)

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