1 trillion euros for a seat at the negotiating table. This is how much Europe has to “show” Trump?

Europe must show US President Donald Trump that it has money if it wants to avoid marginalization during the Ukraine negotiations, said expert Gregoire Roos from the British think tank Chatham House. In his opinion, the value of the European commitment should amount to EUR 1 trillion.

In a comment published on Tuesday, the analyst said that the European Union and its European allies “must come to terms with the fact that the American (political) course is hyper-transactional – alliances are treated as entries in the accounting books, and partners as paying customers.”

Those who come to Washington with investment promises, financial packages or a desire to buy military equipment are allowed in. Those who don't just wait outside, Roos noted.

As an example, he pointed to Trump's actions during his first term in the White House, including the change of position towards Qatar after that country expanded its investment portfolio in the US to include commitments worth USD 45 billion.

According to the expert, with Trump's return to power in 2025, “the same logic not only persisted, but even intensified.” This is evidenced by, among others,

• new commercial agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,
• Saudi Arabia's $600 billion commitment to invest in the US.

“Europe cannot rely on appeals to history, values ​​or allied loyaltyif he wants to influence the situation in Ukraine. He has to bring in money, and it's serious,” Roos noted. In his opinion, it could be up to EUR 1 trillion. The expert calculated that the source of this money could be, among others, frozen Russian assets, the use of guarantees from the EU Multiannual Financial Framework or funds from the European Investment Bank.

“If Europe does not offer serious financing, it should expect to take a marginal role and should not be surprised if it is sidelined in negotiations directly related to its security simply because others are writing bigger checks,” said the Chatham House expert.

“If Europe wants to have a real seat at the table when Trump decides the fate of Ukraine, it must show the money. Not symbolically, but on a large scale, upfront and quickly. (…) This is the price that must be paid today to influence politics and ensure Europe's security tomorrow,” he added.

From London Marta Zabłocka (PAP)

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