A bad deal in Ukraine would threaten US interests, says Michael Bloomberg, businessman, former mayor of New York
The terms of the US peace plan are improving for Ukraine after the Geneva talks, which is good news. But in its pursuit of a diplomatic victory, the White House should not forget the cost of a weak deal that fails to deter Russian aggression, writes Michael Bloomberg, businessman, former mayor of New York and founder of Bloomberg News.
Michael Bloomberg/PHOTO: AFP
He stressed that the original 28-point proposal was meant to deter the Russians. But instead, the deal included Russian priorities: ceding territory by Ukraine, reducing its military, banning foreign aid. The security safeguards, while stronger, were still structured in a way that would have allowed Vladimir Putin to cause their destruction if he wanted to.
In his view, European leaders, like many in Congress, were rightly alarmed by news of the peace plan. And while Ukrainian officials seem happy with the new versions of the framework agreement, the most contentious issues, including the exchange of territories, remain unresolved, Bloomberg writes.
Russia would emerge stronger militarily
“A failed deal would pose a threat not only to Ukraine but also to US strategic interests. Russia would emerge militarily stronger, threatening Europe and increasing, rather than reducing, the burden on America. The Pentagon would likely have to step up support for NATO allies with more troops, more surveillance, more missile defense and more effective crisis management, leaving fewer resources to contain China in the Indo-Pacific. If Putin violates the agreement, as past experience suggests, the US should either hold out, risking being drawn into a larger and more complicated war, or be exposed as a paper tiger”writes Bloomberg.
Moreover, Bloomberg argues, abandoning Ukraine would turn it into another Afghanistan, a clear example of US unreliability. It would fuel nuclear proliferation as vulnerable states decide they need their own deterrent. It would also, he adds, undermine the liberal order, and countries like China would feel freer about their own territorial ambitions.
The United States, he said, should recognize that its interests are best served by a strong Ukraine that is part of Europe and can defend itself in the long term with Western weapons and intelligence. The deal the White House will support should not undermine that possibility.
The first step towards peace should be a ceasefire along the front line
Thus, he continued, the first step toward peace should be a front-line armistice, with territorial exchanges to be agreed later. According to him, Ukraine is a sovereign state and should not be forced to accept restrictions on the size of its armed forces or the presence of foreign troops on its territory. At the same time, Western security guarantees should be binding, with clear mechanisms, and frozen Russian assets should be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
“Congress should pressure the administration to allow the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, a powerful deterrent that would only be used if Russia violates the cease-fire agreement. Similarly, Germany should provide its long-range Taurus missiles. European countries should stop arguing and provide loans secured by frozen Russian assets to cover Ukraine's budget deficit”, Bloomberg pointed out.
He also believes the US legislature should pass a bipartisan bill that would allow Trump to impose fines on buyers of Russian exports, and such sanctions would be automatically activated in the event of a resumption of hostilities. The Ukrainian government, for its part, should support a full investigation and prosecution of those involved in “Minditcigate” to restore confidence in the Zelenski government, both at home and abroad.
“If Putin rejects such terms, his lack of sincerity about peace will at least be evident. The Russian leader has repeatedly said that for the Kremlin, control of Ukraine is central to his vision of restoring his country's greatness. This project requires continued authoritarianism at home and aggression abroad, which will lead to the enslavement of Russians and constant threats to its neighbors. The only peace the United States should strive for is one that limit their ambitions, not encourage them' concluded Michael Bloomberg.
