FCSB in first place, CFR Cluj out of the play-off!

• Expected Points (xP) is an indicator used by the Wyscout platform to estimate how many points a team should have scored based on the quality of chances created and allowed in a match or season.

• The model is based on the concept of expected goals (xG), which measures the probability that each shot will turn into a goal, depending on factors such as the position on the pitch, the type of pass, the pressure of the opponent or the part of the body used in the completion.

• Based on the xG values ​​of both teams, the probability of each possible outcome is calculated, and these probabilities are then converted into expected points. For example, a team that clearly dominates in chances may have 2.2 or 2.4 xP in a match, even though in reality they only got a draw.

• At the season level, the difference between actual points and xP indicates whether a lineup performed above statistical level (high efficiency, pragmatism, luck) or below potential (misses, defensive errors, lack of efficiency).

The Super League standings, based on the “Expected Points” parameter of the Wyscout platform:

1. FCSB – 50.2 points / 10th place, 40 points (actual position in the hierarchy)

2. Dynamo – 49.8 / 2nd place, 52 points

3. University of Craiova – 48.8 / 1st place, 53 points

4. Galati Steel – 41.6 / 9th place, 40 points

5. Fast – 41 / 3rd place, 49 points

6. U Cluj – 39.5 / 4th place, 45 points

7. FC Arges – 39.2 / 6th place, 43 points

8. CFR Cluj – 38.8 / 5th place, 44 points

9. Lighthouse – 38.1 / 11th place, 37 points

10. FC Botosani – 35.4 / 7th place, 42 points

11. UTA Arad – 34.6 / 8th place, 41 points

12. Hermannstadt – 34 / 15th place, 17 points

13. Oil – 32.5 / 12th place, 28 points

14. Unirea Slobozia – 26 / 14th place, 24 points

15. Csikszereda – 22 / 13th place, 25 points

16. Metaloglobus – 21.9 / 16th place, 11 points

The most spectacular jump in the ranking belongs to FCSB, who climbed from the 10th place directly to the first position. At the opposite pole, only three teams faithfully confirm their “real” position in the hierarchy: Dinamo, solid on the 2nd place, Unirea Slobozia, on the 14th, and Metaloglobus, remaining the “red lantern” of the ranking.

In terms of points accumulation, the most consistent progress in this alternative hierarchy is that of Hermannstadt, with an impressive jump of 17 points. Steel also ticks off a notable climb, from 9th to 4th place. Even if the difference between points obtained and xP is not a significant one, the positional dynamics remain one of the most interesting in the ranking.