Whoever wants to become Chancellor of Germany must embody seriousness. Reliability is part of Germany's political DNA. The misunderstanding is even greater when U.S. allies repeatedly elect a man as president who embodies quite the opposite.
His predecessor, Barack Obama, put it this way on Saturday: “Every day the White House offers people a new dose of lawlessness, thoughtlessness, meanness and just plain insanity.”
This “madness” of Donald Trump is often perceived as pathological in Europe. In America, however, the Trump phenomenon is seen less as madness and more as method. Many experts suspect Trump is using it madman theory — madman's theory. Putin too.
The Italian philosopher Machiavelli noted that “feigning madness can be very wise.” Centuries later, nuclear strategist Herman Kahn transferred this knowledge to the logic of the Cold War. In his book “Thinking About the Unthinkable” (“Thinking the Unthinkable”), published in 1962, wrote that “feigning madness” can be useful to bring sense to an opponent.
Shortly thereafter, US President Richard Nixon put this theory into practice. In the final stages of the Vietnam War, he wanted to convince the world that the president of the United States was unpredictable and capable of anything – even to use nuclear weapons. The fear of losing control was intended to force his opponents to enter into negotiations.
Nixon explained his strategy to his adviser Harry Robbins Haldeman as follows: “I want to convince the North Vietnamese that I will do everything to end the war. We will tell them something like, 'Oh my God, you know how much Nixon hates communism. When he gets angry, no one can stop him – and he has his hand on the nuclear button.' In two days, Ho Chi Minh will personally appear in Paris and ask for peace.”
Trump and Putin are following the same path
Also the president of Russia Vladimir Putin is probably using the strategy of a madman. He repeatedly threatens nuclear escalation, saying that “[narody zachodnie] they must be aware that we also have weapons that can hit targets in their territory. All this carries a real danger of conflict using nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization.
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No one in their right mind would believe in a nuclear attack on NATO territory. If in doubt, this would end in Russia's suicide and – as Putin himself claims – the destruction of civilization. However, it is not entirely certain that Putin will not do it regardless. That is why he is perceived by the West as a threat and welcomed by Trump with honors.
Donald Trump himself raised it madman theory to the rank of art. Once it spontaneously imposes punitive tariffs on Europe, only to renegotiate them again shortly thereafter. Another time he humiliates Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in front of the cameras. Yet another time he threatens Putin on his Truth Social platform that he will flood Ukraine with weapons.
Already during his first election campaign, Trump declared that “as a nation we must be more unpredictable.” When he was asked in 2024 how he would react to China's blockade of Taiwan, he replied: “I won't have to do that because [Xi Jinping] he respects me and knows I'm fucking crazy.
In Trump's vision of the world, Putin would never attack Ukraine under Trumpbecause he wouldn't know how the United States would react. Joe Biden, on the other hand, was predictable and therefore weak. Vice President J.D. Vance once said, “I'm sure unpredictability has benefited the United States.”
Now his strategy could truly be a great success. During a meeting in South Korea, Chinese leader Xi Jinping assured that he would continue supplies of rare earth metals for at least a year and would consider extending the deadlines. In return, Trump reduces the horrendous tariffs he previously imposed.
The imposition of 54% tariffs that Trump claimed were reciprocal but were in fact arbitrary, further increases to 145%, tariffs on fentanyl – new tariffs appeared almost every week, so much so that even journalists lost track.
What Trump is really about
Perhaps the purpose of this action from the beginning was to secure access to rare earth metals from China. Without them, the American technology industry would collapse. But perhaps this deal is just a happy twist in an otherwise planless operation full of chaotic statements and even more chaotic social media posts. As the motto goes: sometimes a blind hen will also find grain.
And that's what makes the lunatic theory so effective: No one knows for sure whether Trump or Putin are consciously using it, or if they really are as crazy as they seem.
After all, Hitler turned out to be a true madman who, in his madness, plunged the world into war. They didn't believe him from the very beginning either.
In turn, in 1969, Nixon ordered “Operation Menu”, a secret bombing of Cambodia, and in 1970 – an invasion of that country. However, he failed to convince the North Vietnamese and their Soviet allies of his madness and eventually had to withdraw from Vietnam. His strategy failed.
Perhaps Donald Trump will succeed in making madness socially acceptable.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
