The conclusion of a teacher after analyzing the electoral polls: “Constanta is Simion in round II, but there is a big difference from the last elections”

The 14 polls given to the public since March have a constant: George Simion qualifies in round II, says Professor Sergiu Miscoiu. In addition, there are many indecisions, but they are very different from the “indecisions” of last year's election polls.

Survey accounting: George Simion enters the second round. Photo: Adevărul collage

The newest Sociopol poll, conducted at the command of Romania TV and released the last days, places the gold leader George Simion and the independent candidate Victor Ponta in the 2nd round at the May elections in May.

In the IRSOP survey, from April 16, Simion is in the first place, followed by Nicușor Dan, Victor Ponta and Crin Antonescu.

In the last Atlasintel poll, from April 15, Simion was in the first place, followed by Crin Antonescu, Nicușor Dan and only on the 4th place Victor Ponta.

On April 14, Sociopol was led by Simion, but it was followed by Victor Ponta, Nicușor Dan and Crin Antonescu.

In the 14 election polls given to the public from March and to this day the situation is repeated: the first place is George Simion, and then, the places 2.3 and 4 are divided between Crin Antonescu, Nicușor Dan and Victor Ponta, depending on the institute that conducted the study.

“Adevărul” conducted a guide to read the electoral polls published before the presidential elections.

In the respective analysis, the director of Inscop Research, Remus Stefureac critically analyzed the polls: “From what I have seen so far, almost all the entities that have published data either have not published until now, so they do not qualify or have committed some major errors, and again I think they have a problem. I think 80% of what has been published so far are purely electoral. ”

“Adevărul” discussed with the political analyst Sergiu Mişcoiu, professor at professor at Paris-East Créteil and at Babeș-Bolyai University in Cluj, about the evolution of electoral polls in Romania, from the first published in March to the one published today.

Constanta is Simion

Truth: Can we draw any conclusion from the evolution of these polls over time?

Sergiu Miscoiu: There are a few trends, despite the fact that we have very large differences between the polls and, to a greater extent than in other scrutins, we have orders according to which the figures are not necessarily regulated, but the way of calculation, the sampling mode, so that the figures will favor a certain candidate.

I think we have, on the one hand, more serious companies that have been doing well -structured polls, made up of specialists in the field that declares very exactly the type of sampling, the way of preparing the interpretation of the results, their aggregation and from which we can expect results that have greater accuracy, but we have something more and more.

Did you find any constant in these polls?

There is a constant in all these polls, it is George Simeon's score, which seems to be the first, and unlike the November 2024 choices, we do not have such a large number of people to refuse to indicate who they vote, which allows us to conclude that there are quite good chances that George Simion will be in the first place and if the day will be on the day.

How are the other candidates stand?

On the other hand, we have tendencies that are oscillators regarding the other candidates. The three candidates who have a chance to reach the second round are Nicușor Dan, Crin Antonescu and Victor Ponta. They come on different political color, with marginal intersections of their electorates. The tendencies of the last days, the research before the Easter holidays, show us that after a constant period of growth, Mr. Ponta seems to have stopped and seems to be on an still inconclusive, but seemingly downward slope.

Mr. Crin Antonescu reverse, after knowing a descending period, seems to be a recovery period. And the electorate that oscillates the most is that of Nicușor Dan, which is in a margin between 16 and 22-23%, an oscillation that can push it in the second round, as it can push it in 4th place, if things will be structure in a different way.

I would say that there is no clear indication for those who qualify in the second round of presidential elections so far and that we will not be able to count on such a clear trend, not even in the last week before the elections, but only in the last two or three days preceding the elections.

“We have indecisses who seem to be indecisions in the own sense of the word”

Do you expect the disclosures, all kinds of surveys in the press to overthrow the hierarchs?

We can expect anything, certainly as the time of the poll is approaching, the more the number of public scandals, disclosures, self -denunciations to defuse any more important press bombs than those that are in this way. We can expect immense attacks on the person and against families and friends, colleagues and supporters of some or others. We can also expect various strategic campaigns. Hello, now there is an observable tendency in the last week and a half, namely to focus attacks from, on the one hand, the supporters of Crin Antonescu and the supporters of George Simeon against Nicușor Dan. Such campaigns will probably be maintained, as Mr. Ponta also wants to enter the second round with George Simeon to make sure he will defeat him.

And so strategies of this type are likely to have more and the only unknown obvious is how effective they will be, if they manage to move the electorate in one direction or another. I do not think that they will generate great changes in the voting tendency, although the number of indecisions is still apple, and I do not talk about those who do not want to tell with whom they vote, unlike the November 2024 elections, when I had a large number of voters who did not want to say who they vote and who then voted with Mr. Georgescu. Now we have undecided people who seem to be indecisions in the own sense of the word, fully unsatisfied with any decline and in search of a conclusive offer.

They will surely be able to make the difference in the sense of qualifying in the second round of one or the other of the candidates, together with George Simeon who seems, according to all the elements we have now, to be the most likely candidate in this second round.