These are estimates of the Ukrainian costs of the war with Russia. This is how much Kyiv must spend by 2029.

Ukraine will need approximately USD 389 billion. in cash and weapons to be able to wage war with Russia in the next four years – estimates the weekly “The Economist” in its latest issue. According to the British newspaper, these costs will mainly be borne by Europe.

The estimated amount is almost twice the amount of aid of approximately $206 billion that Europe has provided to Kiev since Russia launched large-scale attacks in February 2022. At the same time, the United States has provided approximately $133 billion. both in cash and in military equipment and weapons. “The cost of supporting Ukraine, excluding the United States, for other NATO members will have to increase from approximately 0.2 percent of GDP to 0.4 percent of GDP,” the editorial team calculated.

In the opinion of “The Economist” “whether Europe will cope with this challenge will be a test of its aspirations for strategic autonomy, which means the ability to act within its own foreign policy interests, without dependence on America (or China)“.

According to the weekly, the Ukrainian government currently has a defense budget of approximately $65 billion. annually. According to the Kiev investment company Dragon Capital, it is spending another $73 billion at the same time. annually for all other government services and expenditures. The government generates nearly $90 billion. national revenues, which means an annual budget deficit of approximately USD 50 billion.

According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, made available to the weekly, the government relies on transferred weapons, such as American missiles and European air defense systems, the value of which is approximately USD 40 billion this year.

According to The Economist, these funds “were enough for Ukraine to maintain its position (on the front line), but only slightly.” As noted, Ukraine's defense spending is increasing by approximately 20 percent. per year, “remaining at the level of approximately two-thirds of the value of Russia's growing expenditure, and this comparison may be favorable for UkraineA senior Ukrainian official quoted by the magazine suggested that Russia's actual military spending could be more than twice its official budget.

In its calculations, the weekly assumed that “Ukraine's total defense needs (including the aid provided) will grow by 5 percent annually in US dollars” if other government spending remains unchanged.

Adding up Ukraine's needs over the next four years, including the transferred weapons, budget support and part of the reconstruction costs, we get an amount of USD 389 billion. If the financing were to be provided entirely by Europe, the European Union and its members would have to provide USD 328 billion, and the United Kingdom would have to provide approximately USD 61 billion. – we read in the newspaper.

As noted, “financing should continue even after the war ends because Ukraine must then replenish its ammunition stockpile and maintain a standing army to deter (Russian leader Vladimir) Putin.”

From London Marta Zabłocka (PAP)

mzb/mms/