The problem with Chinese statistics is structural and dates back to the foundations of the political system. – For the Chinese authorities themselves, which we know over the years to the very peaks of the Chinese Communist Party, the official data they received were always unbelievable – explains Jakóbowski.
The expert recalls examples from the past when the highest representatives of the Chinese government were aware of this problem. – There were such famous cases of the Prime Minister of China, who said that he has his own ways to calculate economic activity, because what the provinces report to him – because this is how it works, the provinces report to Beijing how much PKB they created – he considers it unbelievable, because every provincial secretary wanted to demonstrate – explains the deputy director of OSW.
The mechanism of error formation is simple: if political success depended on the size of GDP, then GDP was artificially “overstated. These” system errors “were consistently” up to up “, Which means that for years official statistics presented too optimistic image of the Chinese economy.
– From this point of view, it is difficult to rely only on data – emphasizes Jakóbowski, pointing to the fundamental problem with the transparency of the Chinese economic system.
First -hand certificates
The real scale of economic problems in China illustrate observations from everyday life. – We have many indirect indicators that indicate that the last few years were very difficult in China – says the expert.
– I do not want to use an anecdotal proof here, but even recently, being in Shanghai, driving taxis – I always try to talk to taxi drivers or drivers – and they say: Well, that's not the same. Everything is very expensive. Cannot afford an apartment, and not afford education for children. Now it is much worse – says Jakóbowski his direct experience of staying in China.
This anecdotal evidence finds confirmation in wider social trends. – It is much worse now. This is of course only a small point in a number of different data, even unemployment among young people, which has a record high dimension in China, is a social, huge problem – explains the expert.
The latest data confirms these fears – The unemployment rate among young people (16-24 years) was reached in August 2025, 18.9 percent.i.e. the highest level from the change of methodology in December 2023.
Real estate sector crisis
The effects of the crisis on the real estate market are particularly dramatic. – And the fact that even the extinguishing of the real estate market or the attempt to turn this bubble of real estate we have already talked about caused a decrease in production in many sectors – says Jakóbowski.
The consequences of this crisis go far beyond the construction sector itself. – It's hard to talk about specific data, but I think there were such quarters in China, in which there was a recession in China in recent years – says the deputy director of OSW, indicating the depth of economic problems.
Fundamental change of priorities
A key issue for understanding the current situation in China is a change in the authority's approach to the economy. – The priorities of the authorities have also changed. We associated China for a long time with such a arrangement that power provides GDP growth, and the Chinese do not rebel because they are getting rich. Such a social system, a social agreement actually functioned for a long time – explains Jakóbowski.
Currently, the situation is completely different. – Indeed, the authorities wanted the GDP as high as possible. Today I have the impression that the priorities have moved, i.e. GDP is not such a idol who everyone gives in to China – diagnoses the expert.
This change results from the growing awareness of the costs of the current development model. – The authorities themselves know that a lot of this nominal growth on paper was simply unhealthy, caused various pathologies, an increase in debt and so on. And in fact the priority moved elsewhere – explains Jakóbowski.
Economic security
The new direction of Chinese economic policy is the pursuit of self -sufficiency. – The trade policy is of this aftermath, that is, priority once again went to the expansion of advanced industry sectors. Huge amounts of money within industrial policy went to it with many successes – explains the expert.
– But there is another goal that guides, that is, economic security. The Chinese, the communist party prepares China for the period of conflicts – adds Jakóbowski, pointing to the geopolitical conditions of this strategy.
These conflicts do not necessarily have a military nature. – It doesn't have to be a great war about Taiwan. This can be a period of very sharp customs, technological, currency, everyone else – the expert specifies.
The main goal is to achieve economic independence. – Priority is given that the Chinese economy can function fairly independently. Limit dependence on abroad and these great investments in production capacity, which today we see cars, photovoltaics, various things, energy in renewable China. They are directed to obtain independence from abroad – explains Jakóbowski.
Overproduction paradox
However, the self -sufficiency strategy leads to unforeseen consequences. – The result of this is that less than this production China is able to take over today, because we have another investment bubble, only in an advanced industry – diagnoses the expert.
The result is production surpluses that must find recipients on external markets. – What happens to these surpluses? They go outside and start, worse, push products, even European, not only from the European market, but from global markets, from the global south, South America and so on – explains Jakóbowski.
This expansion has far -reaching geopolitical consequences. – So as if the consequence of this fixation on economic security and industry development at home is that the Chinese are starting to compete more and more with us elsewhere – sums up the deputy director of OSW.
Onet in the morning. Financially
“Onet in the morning”. Financially is a weekly program in which Business Insider journalists talk to invited experts of the business world and politics about current events and issues related to the Polish economy, public finances and the impact of politics on the wallets of every Pole.
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