The Russian army changes the dislocation of some units in the east and south of Ukraine, preparing for the offensive in Donbas; It has not been such a large regrouping for a long time; This may mean preparing a large operation – the Ukrainian analyst Mychajło Liaksikow assessed in the commentary for PAP.
At the turn of August and September in the media – both Ukrainian and Western – there was information about the concentration of Russian units, indicating the preparation of a large offensive operation in Donbas. Its purpose would be to occupy this part of the Donetsk region, which still remains under the control of Ukraine.
– There has been no such reference for a long time. Considering the fact that it applies to units of airborne troops and maritime infantry, the application to prepare a large operation arises by itself – noted in an interview with PAP Mychajło Liuskov, the editor -in -chief of the Ukrainian military portal.
The transfer of troops was to concern, among others Russian maritime infantry brigades: 40 and 155., 177. Infantry Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla, elements of the 76th Land-Turm Division, 11. Brigades of Airborne Army, as well as the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment. These units were to go to the area of Dobropill, Pokrowska and Konstantynówka to intensify offensive activities. At the same time, due to the change in the dislocation of forces, the activity of Russian units in the Sumsk, Kharkiv and Kherson fields decreased.
According to a military expert, an OPADE, Oleksandra Kaluenki, it is worth approaching reports of mass movements of Russian military units with some distance.
– Currently, the movement of individual brigades is underway, but not the entire armies. In 2022 and 2023, there were hundreds of thousands of Russian reservists somewhere behind the Urals. In fact, Russia does not have such resources. Moscow tries to mobilize more people than loses to maintain the current potential. However, you can't just find an additional 100,000 Soldiers – reassured the expert in an interview with the Ukrinform news agency.
From the turn of 2022 and 2023, the Russian-Ukrainian war is of war, de facto, positional. Offensive actions, if implemented, have a relatively small range and do not bring any of the parties to large territorial benefits. According to data from the Ukrainian side, in 2025, during three years of months: June, July and August, the Russian army occupied an area of 1574 square kilometers, without mastering any major urban center.
On most sections of the front line, the situation has been quite stable since 2022. This does not apply to those areas that are located in the Donbass area, i.e. Donetski and Lugansk Districts and part of the Kharkiv region.
The most difficult situation persists in the direction of Pokrowski, where the Russian army strives to lap and conquer the city of Pokrowsk – as reported on September 6 in social media, the commander of the armed forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrski. – This is where the Russians focused the main efforts and created the largest shocking group, which is trying to break our defense – wrote Syrski. He emphasized that the Ukrainian army conducted active defense activities, which allowed regaining control over part of the area near Pokrowska and Dobropill. Ukrainian units in the field of Pokrowskie are also to receive additional support in the form of drones and radio -electronic combat systems. The Russian breach east of Dobropill, which is probably the greatest offensive success of the invasive forces this year, was actually liquidated. – However, the Russians did not give up plans to occupy Dobilla – warns Lilesik.
The Russian army conducts active offensive activities on the border between the Kharkiv and Lugansk Districts, striving for lap and occupying the city of Kupiańsk, which is the seat of the district (poviat) authorities and an important transport node. At the beginning of September, the Russian side published photos of Russian soldiers with flags, allegedly taken in the center of this city. However, according to the Ukrainian Deepstate channel, the majority of Kupiańska invariably remain under the control of Ukrainian forces, and the photographs taken are part of the information war.
Intensive fights are also ongoing for the Sieriebrian Las (sometimes called “Ukrainian Verdun”, in reference to the battle of Verdun from World War I), located at the interface between two operational directions: Łymanian and Siwerian. In August, Russian forces were able to move the front line in this place in their favor, in places up to 3 kilometers. Any greater breakthrough of Ukrainian defensive lines in this area could create a threat to the cities of Łyman and Siewnersk.
An important point of Russian activity is also the area of the cities of Czasiw Jar and Konstantynówka, and this last town is – next to Pokrowska – one of the most important goals of Russian offensive activities. The city remains in a lap from three sides and is fired at a significant frequency, both by artillery, as well as the use of drones and directed bombs.
The Ukrainian General Staff also warned against the risk of Russian forces offensive in the direction of Zaporosze, although, so far, the situation on this section remains stable. Clashes near Chersonia are similar, where the Dnieper River is a natural demarcation line and a defensive borders for the Ukrainian army. Fighting in this area continues, above all, for control over the islands in the Dnieper Delta.
Most experts, both representing Ukrainian and Western analytical centers, are consistent that the main goal of the Russian offensive is to occupy the urban agglomeration created by Kramatorsk, Słowiańsk, Konstantynówka and Drużka. This would be possible in a situation if the Russian forces were simultaneously performed by a maneuver to flash these cities from the south (from the Pokrowsk region) and from the north (from the Łyman and Siwer region), and then led to their encirclement. However, it is unlikely that the Russian army has reserves to carry out such an extensive operation. It is also not actually possible – in the face of real -time recognition and observation of the battlefield – the use of the element of surprise.
– As for the Slavic or Krama, it is probably too early to talk about it, but it should be remembered that currently the main efforts of the Russians are directed at the occupation of Pokrowska and Konstantynówka – comments Lilesik. The expert also points out that the use of units considered elite can bring results: the Russian grouping consisting of airborne and maritime infantry units was able to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kurski region, and then conducted offensive activities on the summary section. – The use of a similar grouping of units in the Donetsk region can lead to changes on the front line in favor of Russia – warns Lilesik.
Invariably, the main advantage of Russia in the war with Ukraine are greater human resources and mobilization skills. – The Russians managed to build a fairly effective loss system. Recruitment to the Russian army has not been based solely on volunteers who report to recruitment points. Contracts are signed by people detained by the police or prisoners. In conversations with prisoners of war, you can even find relationships according to which they were tossed drugs and a choice was given: a judgment and a prison or a contract with a Russian army – told PAP Liuksikow.
– Our main problem is not today to destroy dozens of armored columns – but to effectively destroy dozens and hundreds of small assault groups – says a previously quoted military expert. Such actions, consisting in attempts to quickly penetrate through the defensive lines of small groups of soldiers (often on motorcycles or off -road vehicles), are currently the main way to conduct offensive activities by the Russian army. Attacks using tanks and armored personnel carriers are rare, and if they come to them, they end with severe losses, mainly due to the activity of unmanned and artillery fire.
– Hard fights are waiting for us. The opponent, not having the opportunity to conduct a maneuvering fight, will try to draw Ukrainian forces into bloody city fights for Pokrowsk, Czasiw Jar and other key towns – provides Kaluenko.
Dariusz Materniak (PAP)
Mad/ Szm/ Mow/
