First in May, and now at the beginning of July interest rates in Poland fell. To talk about the series, there was no interest rate cutting in June. Why then did the Monetary Policy Council not decide on such a move? We find the answer to this question in the report from that meeting, whose content of the NBP revealed on Friday.
We learn that during the discussion at the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council, the condition of the euro area countries, which are key partners for Poland, was discussed accurately. Forecasts were presented indicating that in the whole of 2025 Germany will remain in stagnation. In turn, in the United States, economic activity has recently decreased, among others In connection with the duties.
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During the discussion on inflation, it was noted that in May the annual dynamics of consumer prices slowed down. Some members of the Council emphasized that Current inflation is lower than previous forecasts. By discussing the perspectives of inflation, they emphasized that in June inflation would probably stay at a similar level as in May. Whereas In July 2025 – despite the planned restoration of charging the power fee as part of electricity bills for households – a significant decrease in inflation is forecastwhich should be contributed by the statistical base effect associated with partial frostbite of energy prices a year earlier and a recently announced reduction in tariffs for the sale of gas for households from July.
It was emphasized that, according to current forecasts, inflation in Q3 2025 may fall near 3 percent. However, from the fourth quarter of 2025, inflation may increase again, in particular if the administered energy prices increase to the level of current URE tariffs.
MPCs with percentage rates
“Under these conditions, the Council decided to keep interest rates at an unchanged level. The Council estimated that the current level of NBP interest rates is conducive to the implementation of the inflation target in the medium period ” – we read in the protocol.
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The MPC members indicated that further decisions would depend on the information on the prospects of inflation and economic activity. They pointed out that “The factor of uncertainty remains the formation of demand pressure and the situation on the labor market in the following quarters, the level of administered energy carriers and the shape of fiscal policy. The source of uncertainty is also the formation of inflation in the world, including due to changes in the commercial policy of the main economies. “
There was also an individual opinion that – in view of increased inflation, including inflation of service prices, as well as high salary dynamics and the current shaping of inflation expectations – the current level of NBP interest rates is too low.
