Sevinj Osmanqizi is a journalist covering U.S. foreign policy, security and geopolitics, with an emphasis on the broader post-Soviet area. He reports on decisions made by Washington and their impact on Ukraine and stability in the region.
There is outrage on Russian state television over the parliamentary elections in Armenia. In some ways, the panic is understandable.
For many months, Moscow had hoped that Armenia would punish Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the ballot box and return to Russia's political orbit. Instead, the prime minister's party, Civic Agreement, won the June 7 elections with almost 50 percent. votes, which ensured the right to continue ruling.
Russian propagandists immediately presented this result as the result of “dirty games”, arrests, manipulation and alleged electoral violations. But Moscow's real frustration lies elsewhere: despite Russia's increasingly overt attempts to shape the political mood in Armenia, Armenian voters once again supported a leader whose policies increasingly undermine Moscow's influence.
Moscow invested significant resources in the information campaign. Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan, herself of Armenian descent, has long called for Pashinyan's ouster. Years ago, she accused him of betraying Armenia and lashed out at his voters, suggesting they were blind or stupid for supporting him.
However, the election result was a painful surprise for Simonyan, Vladimir Putin and the wider circle of Kremlin loyalists. Pashinyan not only survived the election; he won decisively.
Putin's desperation is growing
After the vote, Moscow quickly began to question its legitimacy. The spokeswoman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, claimed that the elections were held in an atmosphere of repression and Western interference. This accusation was striking not only because of Moscow's dismal record on democracy, but also because revealed Russia's growing desperation over its declining influence in the South Caucasus.
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In contrast, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) argued that Armenia's parliamentary elections gave voters a real choice among available political options in a professionally managed process. Interestingly, even observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – a group dominated by Moscow – refused to support the Kremlin's narrative of a rigged election, instead describing it as free and competitive.
“The Way of Ukraine”
Moscow has repeatedly warned that if Armenia continues to distance itself from Russia, can “follow the path of Ukraine” However, even this warning is losing force. The war no longer demonstrates Russia's power in the way the Kremlin intended; it increasingly reveals its weakness.
Putin's political spectacles now take place in the shadow of Ukrainian long-range attacks, air defense alerts and tight security calculations. As NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently noted with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine has become so successful that Putin was only able to hold his May 9 parade after Zelensky granted him a two-hour window — and even then, the event was over in just an hour and 55 minutes.
Freedom or tomatoes?
For years, those loyal to the Kremlin have been convincing themselves that Moscow will never allow “Russophobes” to come to power in the so-called “near abroad.” They have created the myth that Moscow can decide what governments neighboring countries can have — and that it will tolerate no other choice. Armenia has just verified this claim.
Pashinyan's victory showed that even in a country that Russia has long treated as part of its backyard, Moscow can no longer dictate political outcomes.
The Kremlin can finance propaganda, send its own commentators, amplify the voices of loyal politicians and issue thinly veiled warnings. However, he has failed to stop Armenian voters from supporting a government that is increasingly undermining Russia's influence.
Moscow's trade sanctions on “tomatoes and cucumbers” have backfired, damaging its image among the Armenian public. As the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, put it: Armenia will not exchange its freedom for tomatoes and cucumbers.
Therefore, Moscow's newfound concern for Armenian democracy sounds like nothing more than bitter anger at the loss of another key lever of influence in a country it has long treated as its own.
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