On Wednesday, the National Bank of Poland published the results of the latest round of macroeconomic survey, which lasted from June 5 to 17. 24 experts representing financial institutions, analytical and research centers and entrepreneurs' organizations participated in the study prepared by the bank every quarter. What do they predict for the economy?
Most forecasts for average annual inflation in 2025 are between 3.4 and 4 percent. In the main scenario, price increases will be about 3.7 percent. According to experts, in subsequent years, the average annual inflation will decrease. Typical scenarios for 2026-2027 do not exceed the upper limit of deviations from the NBP inflation target (3.5 percent). On 2026, they are between 2.3 and 3.5 percent, and on 2027 between 2 and 3.5 percent. Central forecasts for these years are 2.9 and 2.7 percent, respectively.
See also: A surprising decrease in inflation in May. CSO reveals data
According to the report, the probability of shaping the average annual inflation at the level not exceeding the upper limit of the NBP target, increases with the extension of the forecast horizon and amounts to 32 percent. for 2025, 75 percent for 2026 and 76 percent for 2027
Forecasts for GDP
What about economic development? The range of typical scenarios of real GDP growth this year is between 3 and 3.9 percent. The central forecast for this year is 3.6 percent.
See also: Reduction of CO2 emissions in Poland. The Union is running away, our most -coal GDP
In the years 2026-2027 experts expect a slight slowdown in the dynamics of economic activity. Forecasts are mostly closed in the range of 2.6-4 percent. and 2.3-3.9 percent, with central forecasts equal to 3.4 and 3.2 percent, respectively.
Forecasts for interest rates
Macroeconomic survey experts expect that Main interest rate in the NBP will be between 5.09 and 5.35 percent (range of typical scenarios), at Central forecast equal to about 5.25 percent.
See also: A member of the MPCs dispels doubts regarding interest rate reduction
For 2026, the limits of this range are 3.69 and 4.72 percent, and the central forecast is 4.17 percent. Typical NBP reference scenarios in 2027 are between 3.14 and 4.28 percent, and the central forecast is 3.63 percent.
Forecasts for zloty, unemployment and salary
As part of supplementary forecasts, experts also indicated expectations for several other indicators. The average typing suggests that The registered unemployment rate will be 5.1 percent. This year and 4.9 percent in the years 2026-2027with a decreasing annual growth rate of average gross nominal salary. The nominal wage dynamics will be 8 percent. This year, 6.5 percent in 2026 and 5.3 percent in 2027.
See also: Unemployment has dropped to the lowest level this year. So many people don't work, or maybe
Considering the surroundings of the Polish economy, surveyed experts expect a slight acceleration of GDP growth in the euro area from 0.9 to 1.2 percent. year to year in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027
The average annual price of Brent oil barrel, according to the experts surveyed, in 2025-2027 will be around $ 70, and the euro exchange rate will be PLN 4.25, and in the next two years respectively 4.29 and 4.25 PLN.
