“He is not completely destroyed, no matter what the Americans say.” Great question marks after US attack on Iranian nuclear program
Following US and Israel attacks, the fate of Iran's nuclear program could depend on the more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched at a level close to the right for the manufacture of a bomb, which the Islamic Republic held. Unlike the Trump administration, not all experts are convinced that the Iranian nuclear program has been completely destroyed, writes Financial Times.
After the bombers and submarines threw bombs and rockets on the main nuclear installations of Tehran on Sunday morning, Donald Trump assured that “the key uranium enrichment facilities were completely destroyed.”
There is no doubt that the nuclear sites that the Tehran used to produce strongly enriched uranium-Natanz and Fordo-have suffered serious damage.
The US – Iran conflict, frozen overnight / the only visible movement of Iran / Israel attacked the Tehran, the Iranians responded / Which image did Khamena posted
A third site in Isfahan, used in the fuel production cycle, but also for storage, was hit by Tomahawk cruise missiles, launched by an American submarine.
But, as the Trump administration evaluates the damage, the most important question remains valid: was the nuclear program of the destroyed Iran or simply or was moved to smaller and more difficult installations?
We don't know where the material is
The answer depends largely on what happened with the 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity – close to the 90% purity, suitable for nuclear weapons.
“It all comes down to the material and to the place where it is,” said the Financial Times Richard Nephew, a former American official who worked in Obama and Biden administrations on Iran's issue.
Oil prices are raising Monday morning, waiting for Iran's decision on the Ormuz Strait, through which a quarter of world oil passes. Tehran asks the Arab countries to sell the US government securities
“Based on what we have seen so far, we do not know where the material is. We have no certainty that we will be able to get it soon,” he said.
“I think it would be a fool,” he added, “to say that the program was delayed for more than a few months.”
“I doubt they moved it” “
Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, said that “no one will certainly know for several days” if Iran has tried or managed to move strongly enriched uranium.
“I doubt they have moved it, because at this moment nothing can be moved,” he told CBS.
“When a truck begins to circulate somewhere, the Israelis see it, aim and destroy it,” explained the head of American diplomacy.
Maximum alert in the key cities in the US. Message sent by Tehran before Trump's attack
But a source inside the Iranian regime said it would have been “very naive to keep the uranium enriched in those locations.”
“The rich uranium is intact at this time,” added this source, quoted by the Financial Times.
“The game is not over”
Analysts warned that Tehran could rush to develop a bomb using clandestine installations if it becomes desperate and feels the need to restore their discouragement power.
Ali Shamkhani, a chief counselor of the supreme leader of Iran, said that the nuclear capacities of the country remain unchanged.
“Even if the nuclear installations are destroyed, the game is not over,” he wrote on X.
“How can we help?”, Question before the US attack in Iran. What has prepared the B-2 bombing road to the forto
“The enriched materials, the local knowledge and the political will will remain,” said Shamkhani, who would have been injured in the first round of Israel, more than a week ago.
Speculation on the fate of uranium
The strongly enriched uranium was kept in the past in Natanz, in the center of Iran, in the fort, the installation dug deep in a mountain near the Saint Qom city, and in the tunnels in Isfahan, said Nephew.
Once cooled, the material is stored in the form of powder in large cylinders.
The uranium reserve enriched at 60% – part of a total reserve of over 8,400 kg, most with a low level of purity – it meant that the Tehran had the ability to produce enough fissionable material for more nuclear bombs in a few days, if it would choose this.
But the actual transformation process into weapons would take several months or a year, experts said.
The risk has always been that, after Israel had launched the bombing campaign under the pretext of destroying the Nuclear program of Tehran, Iran would secretly move the stock into hidden locations, where they had been secretly installed.
“If they have a line of conversion of the installed uranium, and if they managed to enrich up to 90% at the Fordo before being attacked, and they had eight or nine days, that would be enough for two 90% bombs,” said Nephew.
“The program is not completely destroyed, no matter what the Americans say”
India, Pakistan and North Korea have successfully developed secret programs of nuclear weapons, despite the strict supervision and restrictions imposed by the US.
Sima Shine, a former Iran specialist in Mossad, the Israeli Intelligence Agency, said she was convinced that Iran has moved the rich material.
“They have enough uranium enriched somewhere and have taken some advanced centrifuge somewhere, to allow them to build a nuclear device one day,” said Shine, quoted by the Financial Times.
“The program is not completely destroyed, no matter what the Americans say,” she said.
An Israeli official said that if Tehran and Washington resume negotiations, Netanyahu could insist that Tehran would teach the strongly enriched uranium to be transported and stored abroad.
A second official acknowledged that Iran could have hidden at least part of his strongly enriched uranium stock.
But officials added that, after Israel killed at least 11 Iranian scientists last week, the regime would have difficulty creating a “miniaturized and efficient nuclear weapon.”
