Three conclusions for Poland after the US attack on Iran. “Israel's paradox”
Above all, however, Iran will probably intensify work on nuclear weapons. Tehran will draw one key application from the US attack.
The example of North Korea shows that if you have already started working on it, these works should be brought to an end. Iran can – despite American attacks – to possess nuclear weapons for four reasons.
First of all, it is unlikely that Tehran does not remove the most valuable elements of his nuclear program from objects that – as everything indicated – the Americans intended to attack.
Secondly, even if it did not happen, Iran no longer lost the acquired knowledge. The installations themselves will be able to rebuild sooner or later. It may also probably also be part of the work in North Korea.
Thirdly, although Iran himself, when he claimed that he did not work on nuclear weapons, it was impossible to believe, it is difficult to ignore the fact that in March the head of the national intelligence of the United States Tulsi Gabbard during the speech in Congress claimed that Iran did not work on creating a nuclear weapon.
Another emergency in the tone of the prime minister of Israel Binjamin Netanyahu that it is exactly the opposite, and Iran is close to the possession of such a weapon, in turn, with a grain of eye.
Binjamin Netanyahu
Netanyahu has been saying something like this for about 20 years, but each time Tehran lacks very little to create nuclear weapons. The story of Iran, for whom the Western powers are more or less what Soviet and Russia for Poland, suggests that the effect of American attacks will be that even if Iran has yet hesitated or build a nuclear weapon, there will be no such doubts at present.
The Iranian regime, as we wrote about Onet, is obviously responsible for using terror towards their own society, and the highest officers have repeatedly threatened Israel to destroy. This does not change the fact that the Iranian reluctance to the United States is unfortunately quite solid, reaching the time before the revolution, the basics.
And finally, fourthly – Iran can build the so -called A dirty bomb, which will not explode like a classic nuclear load, but will do a significant area.
One big bluff of Israel
The whole thing has one more paradoxical effect.
On the one hand, the Prime Minister of Israel achieved great success, pulling the US president to the war. In a sense, you can even say that the tail scribbled with a dog. The problem is that by the way it turned out that the Israeli method of conducting politics, which consists in always escalating the exchange of blows more than the opponent, turned out to be one big bluff.
Here Israel pulled the US into the war, not because he needed it for image reasons, but above all because Tel-Aviv, regardless of the successes of his aviation, was unable to achieve his goals without the United States.
If it turns out that the US will pay a high price for being caught up in war, for 10, 20 or 30 years it may turn out that Israel will remain lonely. For now, the pro -Israeli lobby in the US has won. In an average and long -term perspective, when Israel very clearly uses unrestricted violence against civilians and strives for mass ethnic purge, it may turn out that relationships with him are a burden.
Three conclusions for Poland
In Poland, three conclusions should be drawn from what happened.
First of all, a dialogue with Israel should be separated from the Polish -Jewish dialogue. The first one should be considered at least difficult. The latter remains a moral duty. It is also a moral duty to prevent the increase in anti -Semitism.
Secondly, the dialogue with Israel should be ideologized and deprived of any illusions. Israel, in which they do not live so much, but who often rule people with a smaller or greater sentiment towards Poland, there is simply no longer. Israel is very clearly transformed from Golda Meir, Szimon Peres and Icchak Rabbi into a country deprived of any brakes of Binjamin Netanyahu, making the history of her own family to accuse Poland of the murder of his grandmother Yaira Lapida or simply using the racist retoring
Thirdly, it should finally be acknowledged that since Israel has significant influence in the United States, and it depends on the US for obvious reasons, it is worth conducting a dispute with it in such a way as to never confuse assertiveness with bravado. You should not be friends with Israel by organizing him, as it happened during the PiS rule, “Middle East Peace Conferences”, or, as it was during these rule, to argue too passionately.
