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Mariia Tsiptsura: How do you assess the telephone conversation of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, as well as US rhetoric after her?
Volodymyr Fesenko: In fact, it was the reaction of Donald Trump to the Ukrainian-Russian conversations in Istanbul and the stalemate, which was their result. It was also an attempt to use the situation by Trump to give a new dynamics to negotiations with the Russians that froze and did not move forward.
The initiative in the conversation belonged to Trump. What is important, however, before the conversation Trump said that he wanted to organize a personal meeting with Putin. However, the telephone conversation did not bring such a result. They did not reach an agreement. And this is interesting. Because it is proof that things are not so easy in the relationship between Trump and Putin. Because there were many opinions that they were connected by great friendship and they got along in everything. In fact, I think the game is just beginning. And the final of this story is certainly not resolved.
One thing that we can say today is that a telephone conversation between Trump and Putin, unfortunately, confirms that the American president is not ready to put pressure on Putin, does not intend to impose sanctions. On the contrary, Putin will continue to omnipille Trump, who is ready to believe him again. And the telephone conversation itself did not explain, but only confusing the negotiating situation. So now there are many more questions about the further development of negotiations than answers.
“Trump will not be able to completely withdraw from negotiations”
It seems that the US wants to withdraw from negotiations.
In fact, in Istanbul, the Americans withdrew from the negotiations process. They controlled him. The United States remain the driving force of negotiations. But the suspicion that Americans can gradually withdraw from the negotiations process, is only growing. Americans want to retreat. However, there is a paradox: on the one hand, they do not want to take responsibility for further development of negotiations, but at the same time they want to control the negotiating process. This is evidenced by the recently proposed Vatican as a meeting place. It seems to me that JD Vance and Marco Rubio proposed it. So the US withdrawal from negotiations will not be final and will not happen overnight. It can be gradual. But they will not be able to retreat completely.
Why?
Because Trump wants to negotiate with Putin. But the war in Ukraine will constantly disturb him. Trump will continue to encounter political problems.
So if the US withdraws from the negotiation process, Trump will not be able to reset American-Russian relations?
Trump is not the first to try to do it. Almost all his predecessors wanted to do this. But the result was always negative. And now we have to take into account the third page, which has an ambivalent attitude to the relationship between Trump and Putin – China. Currently, there are many conflicts of interests, economic and political interests, between the United States and Russia. There will be more and more in the future. And the main discrepancies will be associated with China. That is why I am very skeptical about the probability of achieving this great agreement. Complete interests will sooner or later begin to appear and create problems. At the same time, if the war between Ukraine and Russia is continued, it will be a bad background and spoil the negotiation process between Russia and the United States.
After all, negotiations between countries during the war will be ambiguously perceived by society. In addition, some of Russia's demands relate to the abolition of sanctions, which is impossible when war is underway. That is why Trump will not be able to completely abandon the issue of the end of the war in Ukraine. To negotiate with Putin, he must end the war.
“It is Russia who exerts pressure on the USA”
Do you think negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, without the USA?
Without an effective mediator and moderator, such negotiations will be ineffective. There will be no compromise option, and everything will get stuck very quickly.
How do you think the situation will develop now?
Of course, there will be negotiations. The negotiation window has become greater. But the prospects for the end of the war are just moving away. It is obvious that Putin deliberately delays negotiations. And the fact that the Russians suggest to Trump some illusory processes, such as working on some Memorandum – this is a fraud that is intended to drag, imitate the negotiations, but does not guarantee any result. And, unfortunately, Trump believes Putin and is ready to play this Russian negotiating game. That is why I am skeptical: negotiations will be, but most likely they will not bring any results.
It seems, based on the recent US administration messages, that we lost the hope that the Americans began to press on Russia and impose sanctions.
Yes. I think the situation is as follows: part of the Trump team insists on imposing sanctions. But Trump himself does not support it. He is afraid that if the US is imposing sanctions, Putin will refuse to negotiate. This is the problem. The negotiating game between Trump and Putin is played by Putin. And Trump reacts to Russia's actions. I would say that instead of the pressure exerted by the US to Russia, Russia exerts pressure on the USA. And concessions to Putin do not bring results, but rather make Russia's position more aggressive and insolent. And as soon as the Russians feel that Trump may escape from their control, they throw a few hooks, such as working on the illusory memorandum. It will probably be a protocol of intention, which only in the form will look compromise. In fact, however, it will contain the same demands that the Kremlin has been pushing for three years. This will also lead to the next deadlock in negotiations.
One positive signal. “It's a good thing”
Can we consider a positive signal that Trump was talking to Zelanski first, and then with Putin?
By all means. The fact that Trump consulted with Zelanski is a sign of partnership. It's a good thing. This is a understanding that Ukraine's position should be taken into account. Another thing is that the Ukrainian president and European leaders did not like what Trump and Putin agreed. But unfortunately Trump agreed to start a new vicious negotiations circle that does not guarantee any results. This is Trump. It will be like that: fluctuations, repetitions. So negotiations will continue, but there are too many unanswered questions. We definitely can't expect a quick and specific result.
What should Ukraine do now
How can all this affect US support for Ukraine?
I want to remind you that there is no US support for Ukraine. There are remains of military support, which the administration of Joe Biden made the decision. In Trump's time, nothing new appeared. There was no significant decision to supply weapons.
And this is the main issue that Ukraine should raise. Further supplies of American weapons are crucial for us. This can become the most effective pressure tool on Putin. We must solve this issue. And this is the main reason that Zelanski is still in the negotiations process and why he can't give up them. It is about preserving the remains of partner relations. The departure of Ukraine from the conversation table is exactly what Putin would like. Then Trump will suspend all support, e.g. transferring satellite data. It can even ban the sale of weapons of Ukraine. And this will significantly worsen the situation.
The supply of ukraine weapons is, as you said, a form of pressure on Putin. And Trump doesn't want to press Putin.
We must put an emphasis on Putin. We will not be able to convince Trump. You have to approach the case from the point of view of the US economic interests. In addition, if there is no supply of weapons, Putin may worsen warfare – and instead of peace, there will be escalation. And restoration of weapons supply can speed up the negotiation process. This is what must be emphasized in talks with the American administration.
