Simon Goeller has no professional contact with military equipment. Goeller, director of transformation and development at the Swiss pharmaceutical company Sandoz, is professionally involved in fermentation installations and pharmaceutical research projects. In an interview for Die Welt, Goeller explains in what areas he sees shortages and which drugs may quickly become unavailable in the event of war.
“Die Welt”: Why did the manager of a pharmaceutical company give a speech at a security conference in Munich?
Goeller: Drug supply should be a fundamental pillar of any security architecture. Without stable health care and access to critical medications, all immunity breaks down. Take antibiotics for example. If they are not available, society will suffer a loss in the form of a reduction in life expectancy by approximately 10 to 20 years. Without antibiotics, hospitals would have to close because surgery cannot be performed without them. And if this happens, the morale of any society will collapse.
Goeller: Take penicillins, for example. They constitute 40-45 percent. all antibiotics, so they are by far the most important antibiotics. For this active substance, Europe is almost completely dependent on China. There is only one factory producing penicillin in Europe, this is our plant in Kundl, Austria. This substance is also no longer produced in the United States.
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A possible disaster scenario is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. What would this mean for the supply of antibiotics in Europe?
If such a scenario occurs, an embargo of Western countries against China should be expected. Medical products such as antibiotics are usually exempt from this. But who said that China would even want to supply us with this raw material? In Europe we would then have two to three months before we would simply run out of drugs. China would thus gain incredible negotiating power.
“It could cost us dearly”
In the event of an armed conflict, couldn't we simply increase production in Europe?
The greatest difficulties in the supply of antibiotics occur at the first stages of production, i.e. in the early stages of fermentation. There are practically no production plants in Europe that deal with this process anymore. And their construction would take three to five years.
Could the Sandoz plant in Kundl increase production quickly if necessary?
We have quite large production capacity, so if necessary we could supply the whole of Europe. However, it must be openly said that this would be at the expense of other regions. Much more important, however, is that under current market conditions, penicillin production is not profitable in the long term.
As Sandoz, we operate the facility in Kundl primarily because of our fundamental social responsibility. Penicillin production in Europe is not economically viable. And this is what may cost us dearly as a society in the long run.
At the same time, Sandoz received subsidies from the Republic of Austria in the amount of several dozen million euros for its plant in Kundl…
… That's true. Austria did a lot about the pandemic and it was extremely important at the time. However, in the long term, we do not see subsidies as the right way to solve the antibiotic supply problem. Enterprises need market conditions in which they can operate.
Please look at India. The country has realized that the prices of Chinese medicines are at such a level that production in India no longer makes any sense. That's why India has just passed a law that makes imports of critical antibiotics subject to a minimum price.
Already during the coronavirus pandemic, drug supply chains were disrupted and many drugs suddenly became unavailable. Politicians then promised to restore supply chains from China and India. To what extent have these plans been implemented?
There are individual areas where there have been some changes. In the case of the so-called discount agreements between sickness funds and drug manufacturers in Germany, there are so-called EU slots. This is intended to favor domestic producers of active substances. However, as of yet, I don't see any sustained improvement in market conditions. Producing antibiotics is no more attractive now than it was before the pandemic.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
