The fate of Ukraine is decided. An unexpected player is pushing at the table
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will return to the place where it all began – to Istanbul. European officials sent Moscow an ultimatum, in which the Russians were to agree to suspend the weapons or hit new sanctions. The Kremlin proposed another idea – direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, also in Turkey – a country that has so far suffered the greatest success in mediation – the only agreement between Ukraine and Russia since the beginning of the war has been signed in Istanbul.
If Türkiye takes part in a potential international mission, they will appear on the horizon Two scenarios of what can happen.
The President of Ukraine Wołodymyr Zelanski spoke about peace negotiations with Russia on Sunday. He turned to Vladimir Putin that he would be waiting for him in Turkey on Thursday, because, he added, “there is no point in extending the killings for a long time.”
“We are waiting for a total and permanent suspension of weapons, starting from tomorrow to ensure the necessary grounds for diplomacy. There is no point in extending killing people. And I will wait for Putin in Turkey on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses” – wrote Wołodymyr Zełnski on the platform X (formerly Twitter).
Donald Trump: Organize this meeting immediately!
We would like to remind you that before Ukraine answered, the US president called Zelanski, asking him to accept the offer of Russia.
“Russian President Putin does not want to conclude an agreement on the suspension of weapons with Ukraine, but he wants to meet in Turkey on Thursday to negotiate the possible end of bloodshed. Ukraine should agree now. At least he will be able to determine if the agreement is possible, and if not, European leaders and US will know where they stand and will be able to act properly! Equipped with celebrating the Day of Victory in World War II – a war that would not be won without the United States of America. Trump wrote.
Although the Kremlin has not signed a 30-day arms suspension, Putin did not rule out that if the talks in Istanbul are successful, they can lead to a “new truce”.
However, just after dawn on Sunday, the inhabitants of Kiev awakened sirens warning against the raid of Russian drones. “The Independent” reports that the raids took place only a few hours after Putin proposed a resumption of direct negotiations with Ukraine.
Trump's influence
US President Donald Trump, frustrated with an impasse in his mediation, apparently played a role in conducting talks in Turkey.
European leaders – Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk – stated that they discussed their proposal with Trump.
Trump himself said earlier this week that He would like to include Erdogan in peace efforts.
What are the options for Turkey?
“Türkiye strongly supports the suspension of weapons and is ready to play a significant role in its implementation through an observation mission,” writes Alper Joskun, researcher of the Carnegie Foundation in Turkey, for geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) Reports.
As he said, this would be in line with Turkey's intentions. Ankara wants to avoid confrontation with Russia and at the same time prevent her from drawing her own country into a direct armed conflict.
If a weapon suspension is introduced in Ukraine, according to Joskun, they may appear two possible scenarios regarding the participation of Turkey in a potential international mission:
Unlikely scenario: Türkiye assumes the role of a player enforcing the room. If the suspension of the weapon results in the arrangement of the armed forces of several Western countries, only on the basis of the Ukrainian approval and in the purpose of exploring the potential future invasion of Russia, the chances of Turkey's participation in such an undertaking decrease.
Probable scenario: Türkiye offers leadership and resources for monitoring weapon suspension. If Russia and Ukraine agree to the monitoring and enforcement mechanism of weapon suspension, and a form of international presence will be required, Türkiye will offer its services.
Meanwhile, Erdogan agreed to be the host of conversations between Russia and Ukraine.
“President Erdogan announced that a historic milestone has been achieved at the end of the war between Ukraine and Russia. According to him, this opportunity should be appreciated, Turkey is ready to make all contributions to the achievement of a suspension of weapons and permanent peace, including Ankara's readiness to undertake negotiations – results from the administration statement, which was reached by the Ria Novosti agency.
What will Trump do now?
Anatole Lieven, director of the Eurasian program at the Quincy Institute, believes thatBoth sides are trying to blame each other for not reaching a weapon suspension agreement In the face of Trump's pressure at the end of the war.
– Trump threatened to withdraw from the peace process if the agreement was not reached soon. The question, however, is who he considers guilty of this state of affairs? If he will blame the Russians even more, then full US support for Ukraine will continue, and the sanctions he threatened will be tightened. However, if he defeats Ukraine more, then – once he did – he will suspend American help for Ukraine, which of course will drastically weaken its military position and strengthen Russia. So both sides try to maneuver to shift the blame for any failures to the other side – he said.
Trump himself, referring to Putin's proposal regarding direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, said it would be “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine.”
– It will be a completely new one and a much better world He said, adding that he would continue to work on both sides to ensure that this will happen and that “Holy Week is ahead”.
The role of Turkey
Türkiye, the second largest military power in NATO, has been practicing a balancing policy between East and West for years. It was no different in the matter of Russia's war in Ukraine.
Ankara has so far organized negotiations, introduced restrictions in maritime shipping in the Black Sea and called allies to avoid actions that could tighten the conflict. The cessation of hostilities in Ukraine will reduce the risk of the conflict to the Black Sea region and allow Turkey to relax from fears about security on its northern border.
Considering the relations of Turkey with Kiev and Moscow and its ambitions of mediation in dialogue, Türkiye is in a good position to play the role of a mediator. However, the rate for Erdogan is high.
A lot can go wrong, but if Türkiye will turn out to be a key player in stopping Russian aggression at Ukraine, its status of the greatest power in the region will be providedwrites the portal “Konverseyshen”.
Negotiations in Turkey
So far, several rounds of peace conversations have been held, which aimed to end the war in Ukraine since February 2022.
The first meeting of representatives of Russia and Ukraine took place four days after the start of the invasion, February 28, 2022 in Belarus. It ended without result. The next rounds of negotiations took place in March this year at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and in Turkey.
In the spring of 2022, as a result of negotiations in Turkey, Russia and Ukraine were closest to the achievement of the agreement based on the proposals presented in the so -called Istanbul agreement. Negotiations have led to an agreement under which Ukraine will not join NATO and will have limited military skills, but will receive security guarantees from Western countries and will not be obliged to recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia.
The draft contract was almost accepted, but discrepancies regarding the guarantee of security and the massacre of civilians in Bucza finally interrupted negotiations. The grain agreement was also signed in Turkey – it was the only agreement between Russia and Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
The resumption of negotiations began this year thanks to the mediation of Trump, who talked on the phone with Putin in February this year, followed by meetings of American delegations, separately with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia. The relations between Washington and Kiev deteriorated after a dispute in the White House between Trump and Zelanski, as a result of which Great Britain and France developed a weapon suspension plan supervised by the “coalition of volunteers” with troops in Ukraine.
From March there were sporadic, limited suspensions of weapons on the front, but to a real peace agreement – or at least longer suspension of weapons – you still have to wait.
