PKO BP Analysts: At the end of the year a slight increase in average transaction prices of apartments

In the last months of the year, it is possible to appear light (within a few percent) trends in the upward trends of the average transaction prices of apartments – forecast PKO BP analysts. This will be favored by the slowly rebuilding housing demand and the offer of apartments reduced by developers on the primary market.

“In the perspective of the year (second quarter of 2025 – the first quarter of 2026) in the base scenario we expect the continuation of the current situation until autumn this year (with possibly a small correction of prices locally); in the last months of the year it is possible to appear light (within a few percent) of the increase in the increase in medium transaction prices of apartments” – wrote in the report.

“This will be favored by the slowly rebuilding housing demand and the offer of apartments reduced by developers on the primary market” – he added.

Economists of PKO BP indicate that the premises of a gradual increase in demand at moderate level are, among others The reduction of interest rates in May 2025 and waiting for subsequent discounts – according to PKO BP, you can expect another cut of feet in the second half of 2025 and three in 2026.

It also speaks for a gradual increase in demand Potential implementation of the set -up decisions to buy an apartment after information about the government's resignation from the program of subsidies for housing and in the face of the first signals of reviving the housing market, as well as the persistent increase in salaries.

“On the supply side, there has probably been/is close to adaptation of apartments to the market situation (fewer apartments introduced to the market; less new projects started), which, by reducing the current and future offer, allows only small, local price corrections” – indicated in the PKO BP report.

The authors of the report indicate that in the following quarters important and accumulating premises for the increase in prices on the supply side include The costs of amending the technical conditions (including requirements for playgrounds, mandatory rooms for joint use, higher minimum distances from the plot boundaries) and high energy and services prices.

According to analysts, the increase in prices on the supply side is also supported by the increase in the prices of plots for development for the possible limitation of their supply after the municipalities adopted general plans according to the new rules (introduced by the amended Act on spatial planning), as well as possible decision paralysis (if the commune did not manage to adopt the general plan until the end of June 2026).

Prices may also conquer the costs of so -called Shelter act.

“Meeting its technical requirements will increase the costs of investment (materials, redesign), which are unlikely to be fully compensated for public subsidies and will be partly transferred to buyers” – wrote in the PKO BP report.

The authors of the report indicate that costs also support prices amendment to the building directive.

“These factors mainly apply to new projects and will affect various severity and in different time horizon” – they were noted in the report.

PKO BP analysts indicate that prices cannot be ruled out.

“This situation may materialize in the event of strong demand and supply shocks related to the geopolitical situation. Risk factors are an increase in inflation and interest rates and a decrease in population income causing a strong decrease in housing demand and a decrease in housing prices” – wrote in the report.

“Announcements of the introduction of catastral tax may also affect the housing demand,” added. (PAP Biznes)

Pat/ Ana/