“The state public debt (PDP, debt of the public finance sector after consolidation) at the end of the first quarter of 2026 amounted to PLN 2,008.2 billion, which meant an increase of PLN 94.6 billion (+4.9%) compared to the end of 2025.” – informed the Ministry of Finance.
The PDP to GDP ratio at the end of the first quarter of 2026 was 50.6%. which meant an increase compared to the end of the previous year by 1.7 percentage points. The ratio for 2025, with the current GDP estimate, was 48.9%. GDP and was lower by 0.2 percentage points. since published on March 31 this year.
We would like to remind you that this is PDP debt (state public debt, which does not include debt issued by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, the Polish Development Fund or the Armed Forces Support Fund). A broader measure, consistent with the criteria of the Maastrich Treaty and used by EU bodies, is the debt of the general government sector (so-called EDP), which takes into account the liabilities of the institutions mentioned above).
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Ministry of Finance, own study
EDP's debt has already broken the PLN 2 trillion barrier in 2024. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, it amounted to over PLN 2.4 trillion (exactly PLN 2,444.3 billion), which meant an increase of PLN 109.1 billion (4.7%) compared to the end of last year. The ratio of EDP debt to GDP at the end of the first quarter of 2026 was 61.6%. which meant an increase compared to the end of the previous year by 1.9 percentage points. The ratio for 2025, with the current GDP estimate, was 59.7%. GDP and was lower by 0.3 percentage points. since published on March 31 this year.
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55% threshold from the Public Finance Act (exceeding which would mean the need to reduce the indicator in the following year, including freezing wages in the budget and indexation of social benefits) and the constitutional limit of 60%. (if it was exceeded, the government would be forced to prepare a budget without a deficit for the next year) concern the PDP index.
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Ministry of Finance, own study
Therefore, governments consciously “push” spending outside the central budget to make more room for debt warning thresholds. As a result, the difference between EDP and PDP is growing and currently amounts to approximately PLN 436 billion, which is nearly 11%. GDP (before the pandemic, the difference between EDP and PDP was only PLN 50 billion).
Greater debt causes higher debt servicing costs. Especially since interest rates are now higher than during the pandemic, when the pace of debt growth has accelerated, and the situation on the markets is tense due to the war in Iran (which increases the yields of treasury bonds).
What influenced the change in debt
The change in the debt of the general government sector in the first quarter of 2026, apart from changes to the PDP, was mainly influenced by: an increase in the consolidated debt of the COVID19 Countermeasure Fund (FPC) by PLN 12.4 billion; increase in the debt of the Armed Forces Support Fund (FWSZ) by PLN 6.3 billion; increase in the debt of the National Road Fund (KFD) by PLN 0.4 billion; increase in the debt of the Assistance Fund (FP) by PLN 0.4 billion; an increase in the balance of deposits on the MF and TS accounts held by funds located in BGK by PLN 3.5 billion, which resulted in a decrease in EDP's debt as a result of increased consolidation of mutual liabilities; an increase in the impact of including enterprises in the general government sector by PLN 1 billion; decrease in EDP's debt in relation to PDP related to CIRS transactions by PLN 1.5 billion.
