“In our opinion, and we would like to be wrong, the reduction of the feet will not occur in June. It should be remembered that seven MPP members were appointed during the rule of the previous coalition. Despite the resolution of the council, it should be remembered that the nomination is due to political parties. Meaning that A potential reduction of the foot would be water for a mill for the ruling party candidate” – wrote in the commentary Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist of the Lewiatan Confederation
He added that the group of foot reduction is certainly also included in prof. Joanna Tyrowicz, who, although chosen by the then opposition Senate of the Republic of Poland, is known for its very hawk to vote and submitted conclusions.
“If you move the political game to the side, it would not be difficult to find an economic justification for the reduction of interest rates in May ” – said Mariusz Zielonka.
He mentioned such arguments: we will gain one month in the event of a customs war to a higher level, we will affect consumption in advance (which, however, slightly fails at the beginning of the year), and at the same time inflation stabilized around 4 percent. And at this level (at least according to the NBP forecasts) it will be in the near future. It will start more clearly from July.
See also: Donald Trump must be patient. Central banks decide on interest rates
“Summing up the reduction – yes, by 50 base points, but only after the second round of elections,” the chief economist of Lewiatana pointed out. The first round of elections is scheduled for Sunday, May 18, and the second on June 1, 2025. Further decision-making meetings of the MPC will take place on June 3-4 and July 1-2. There is no planned decision meeting of the MPC in August.
The surprise before the election was already there
The MPC has not changed interest rates in Poland for a year and a half. The last change was a reduction. At the beginning of September 2023, the MPC cut off the feet by as much as 0.75 percentage points, which shocked the market (reduction was expected, but only by 0.25 percentage points). At the beginning of October 2023 – a few days before the parliamentary elections – there was another cut (this time according to forecasts), by 0.25 percentage points
After the election, the MPC took a very hawk position, i.e. she put more emphasis on fears for high inflation, and smaller on economic growth and the situation on the labor market. The reference rate has not twitched since then and amounts to 5.75 percent.
|
own development
