Despite restrictions on abortion, calls to have as many children as possible and propaganda of “traditional values”, Russia's population will continue to decline, predicts Anatoly Antonov, head of the department of sociology of family and demography at Moscow State University.
“According to the average forecast of Rosstat, in 2046, in 20 years, we will lose 8 million – there will be 138 million people. I think it will be even less – somewhere 136-135 million,” said Antonov, who spoke at the Hippocrates medical forum.
According to the demographer's forecast, Russia's population will fall to its lowest level since 1977. (at this point it will be the lowest level in 69 years). At that time, 135.5 million people lived within the current borders of Russia, according to Rosstat data.
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine and the breakdown of families, the state will not achieve the goal of increasing the total fertility rate (LWD) per woman in Russia to 1.6 children by 2030, declared in the presidential decree, Antonov said. According to the latest data, TFR in Russia fell to 1,376 – the lowest level since 2006.
The record population of the Russian Federation, according to official statistics, occurred immediately after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 – 148.3 million, and by 2014 it had dropped to 144 million. The annexation of Crimea increased the number of Russian inhabitants, according to Rosstat data, to 146.7 million people in 2015, and then to 147.9 million people.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the population of the Russian Federation has been decreasing almost every year, despite the influx of migrants: by 500,000. people in 2020, by 400 thousand in 2021, by 600 thousand in 2022 and by 300 thousand in 2023. According to Rosstat, as of January 1, 2025, 146.1 million people lived in Russia. Last spring Demographic statistics in Russia have been classified, including data on births, mortality and marriage rates.
According to Antonov's estimates, Russia will not be able to return to the current population rates of the 1970s and 1980s. — Most speakers say abortion should be banned. But if we ban abortion, we won't achieve the level of simple gains anyway [utrzymania obecnej liczby ludności przez określony czas]! – said the demographer.
The latest available annual data from Rosstat (for 2024) showed that the number of births in the country had dropped to 1.222 million – the lowest level since 1999, when the country was experiencing an economic crisis, galloping inflation and the effects of insolvency. In 2025, according to calculations by demographer Alexei Rakshi, the number of births dropped by another 4%, to 1.178 million, which was the lowest level since the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries.
