Ole Hansen, director of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, pointed out that gold prices fell for the third month in a row in May. He added at the same time that despite this, the metal gained 5%. from the beginning of 2026, 36 percent on an annual basis and 91 percent over the last two years.
The bank's expert noted that prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping prices of oil, gas and refined fuels elevated, creating a market environment that has historically been less favorable for gold.
“Instead of triggering a classic flight to safe assets, higher energy prices have intensified inflation fears, raised bond yields, strengthened the US dollar and limited expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. All these factors together have created serious difficulties for non-income assets such as gold,” he said.
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He emphasized that the correction also coincided with renewed strong growth in stock markets, which “limited investor appetite for alternative assets”. “At the same time, several energy-importing countries faced growing financial pressure, prompting some central banks to sell part of their gold reserves in order to support national currencies or partially alleviate the effects of higher energy costs,” the expert noted.
Central banks raised the price
According to a representative of Saxo Bank, the main structural factor that supported the bull market in recent years on the gold market was there was demand from central banks. The analyst noted that while some countries have recently reduced their gold holdings, these sales appear to be primarily tactical rather than strategic.
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Hansen believes that recent geopolitical events have rather strengthened the strategic case for owning gold. He pointed to concerns about the risk of sanctions, reserve diversification, fiscal stability and long-term currency devaluation, which continue to encourage central banks to reduce their dependence on traditional reserve assets. For this reason, central banks are expected to remain net buyers of gold in the coming year.
Demand from China is also important – in the opinion of Saxo Bank's economist. He pointed out that China's central bank increased gold reserves in April for the sixth month in a row, possibly contributing to a three-fold increase in Hong Kong's total gold imports, to 58.6 metric tons.
