Why is Russia bombing Romania and how can we respond? The explanations of the analyst Miroslav Tașcu Stavre
Intense Russian attacks on Romania's border are targeting Ukrainian ports on the Danube, transformed into a vital gateway for grain exports after the blockade of the Black Sea route, according to an analysis by Miroslav Tașcu Stavre. In this context, the foreign policy analyst explains that shooting down drones entering Romanian airspace is a high-risk mission, the decision belonging exclusively to the F16 pilots, who must avoid causing even greater collateral damage by collapsing debris. For a proportional response, the specialist recommends that Bucharest – which has already abolished the Russian consulate in Constanța – activate Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, emphasizing that national security is already fully guaranteed by the Alliance's collective nuclear umbrella.
Nicusor Dan at the B9 Summit Photo: Octav Ganea/Inquam Photos
“The Truth” spoke with Miroslav Tașcu Stavre, foreign policy analyst, about the reason why Ukrainian targets are attacked so close to Romania's border and what measures Romania can take in such cases.
“It is a critical infrastructure for Ukraine. It is in particular the ports on the Danube and which basically ensure the exit to the Black Sea, that would be a simple answer and that is why we see and have seen such images since the war started.
Virtually all of these targets are attacked. They are a gateway to Ukraine, along with other ports on the Black Sea that could no longer be used, practically, and for transporting grain, in particular, from here and a concentration of attacks in that area.”says Taşcu Stavre.
Who can make the decision to shoot down drones safely?
The specialist says that the downing of drones is a risk that only the pilots who fly the F16 jets can calculate. Even if airborne, airplanes cannot safely attack a drone without risking destruction perhaps even greater than that caused by the drone's crash.
“Related to the broader discussion, why the respective drones were not shot down, even though they entered Romanian territory, it is a decision that, at least this time, from the open sources of the Ministry of National Defense, is that there is a danger that the pilots who are engaged in shooting down the drones rather appreciate, if more damage is caused by hitting the target. That is, it is a risk when you hit. Hitting the drone, both pieces of the drone, but also of the vector with which is hit, damage is caused in the area where the drone fell.
From what we know, the area where the drone fell is 14-15 kilometers from the border and the radars should have somehow sensed and known the trajectory of the drone, before it entered Romanian territory, and the question is why they failed, what were the conditions for which they failed to intercept the drone in such a way as not to endanger the population by hitting it.”
The block damaged by the drone in Galati Photo: Inquam Photos
What can Romania do in a proportional response?
In the context of the new sanctions announced by Ursula von der Leyen against the Russian Federation and the message of support sent to Romania, the question arises whether the Romanian authorities could also adopt their own set of special measures to protect national interests. In the conditions in which the president states that Romania “will respond proportionately”. For now, the president has only announced the declaration of the Russian consul from Constanta as persona non-grata and the abolition of the consulate.
“Here, related to the sanctions packages, they are negotiated at the level of the entire European Union. So these are negotiated as a package, considering that we are in the European Union and if there are issues that target people, goods or assets that we freeze, we cannot make them linked only to Romania. What can Romania do? And when we talk about proportional measures, here too I am very curious what the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will do, and what the president will do.
First of all I expect to see, as Poland did, because it is clearly the most serious incident at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, that we can activate Article 4 of the Treaty of the North Atlantic Treaty. It brings the member states to consultations stating practically what happened. And it's a strong signal that would show that we don't remain indifferent, that we don't deal with these things in a reactive way. On the other hand, direct measures, I would like to see some diplomats expelled, I would like to see a firm, clear message from Romania that something like this is unacceptable“, says the analyst.
Entering under the nuclear umbrella of France would double an already existing advantage for Romania
Norway recently joined France's initiative to join an additional nuclear umbrella. The analyst says that Romania already has the protection of countries that have nuclear capability, starting with the USA, the UK, but also France, being part of NATO.
“Here things are quite clear about the framework. We are protected by the North Atlantic Alliance. Including when we talk here about the capabilities that the USA, France and Great Britain have. I don't know if this issue should be strengthened with discussions that are exclusively about France. The whole issue comes from the framework of the Alliance and how the defense is ensured.”concludes the analyst.
