US primary election 2026. Blow for Donald Trump in Iowa and major uncertainty in California
The first results of the primary elections held on Tuesday, June 2 in several American states indicate an extremely close competition in California and a major surprise in Iowa, where the candidate supported by President Donald Trump lost the Republican nomination for governor.
Populist Zach Lahn wins the primary elections in Iowa/PHOTO:Facebook
Unexpected defeat for Trump-backed candidate in Iowa
Republican congressman Randy Feenstra, until recently considered the favorite in the race for his party's nomination for governor of the state of Iowa, conceded defeat on Tuesday evening. The result is all the more remarkable since Feenstra had received the explicit support of President Donald Trump in the last days of the campaign.
The winner of the ballot, businessman and farmer Zach Lahn, ran a campaign inspired by Trump's political rhetoric, promoting slogans such as “Make Iowa Healthy Again” and “Iowa First.” He advocated limiting land ownership by foreign and out-of-state investors and criticized the influence of global elites.
Lahn had the support of the conservative organization Turning Point USA and some local Republican activists who considered Feenstra too close to the Washington political establishment.
The result represents one of the rare electoral defeats for a Trump-backed candidate in the current election cycle and raises questions about the president's influence in some traditionally Republican states.
Economic discontent in Iowa
Political analysts believe the economic hardships felt by Iowa farmers have contributed to the changing political climate. Trade tariffs promoted by the Trump administration and retaliatory measures taken by China have hurt the state's agricultural exports.
In addition, the conflict between Israel and Iran has driven up fuel and fertilizer costs, increasing pressures on the agricultural sector.
A recent YouGov/Economist poll indicates that Trump has a minus 20% net approval rating in Iowa.
In the November general election, Zach Lahn will face Democrat Rob Sand, the current state auditor.
The US Senate race in Iowa is getting competitive
Democrats also see an opportunity in the race for the Senate seat left vacant by the withdrawal of Republican Joni Ernst.
Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic champion and Democratic Party representative, won his party's nomination and will face Republican Ashley Hinson.
Several election analysis organizations have reclassified both the governor's and Senate races as balanced or slightly Republican contests.
California: A gubernatorial race still undecided
In California, the most populous American state, the process of counting votes continues, and the outcome of the primary election for the position of governor remains uncertain.
According to preliminary results, Republican Steve Hilton leads with about 28% of the vote. He is closely followed by Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former health secretary in the Biden administration.
In third place is billionaire and climate activist Tom Steyer, who got about 20% of the vote.
“The California dream is still alive tonight,” Becerra relayed to his supporters, while Hilton said more than a million voters have given him support to lead the state in a new direction.
Steyer urged patience, saying “every ballot must be counted.”
California's electoral system complicates forecasting
California uses an electoral system known as a joint primary election, in which all candidates, regardless of political affiliation, appear on the same ballot. The top two finishers advance to the general election in November.
This mechanism raised concerns among Democrats, who feared that the party's large number of candidates could split the vote and allow two Republicans to qualify in the runoff.
In addition, the popularity of mail-in voting in California means that a complete vote count often takes several days or even weeks.
A poll without a clear favorite
The election to succeed Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has been considered among the most unpredictable in recent state history.
The absence of key Democratic figures from the race, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, has created a leadership vacuum and fueled the emergence of a large number of candidates.
The campaign was marked by themes such as the high cost of housing, lack of economic affordability, homelessness and the risk of wildfires.
Xavier Becerra has seen a significant surge in the polls in recent months following the withdrawal of Congressman Eric Swalwell from the race amid allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denies.
As the votes continue to be counted, the attention of political observers is focused on California, where the final result could redefine the balance of power in both the Democratic and Republican parties.
Los Angeles mayoral election
In parallel, incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass qualified for the November general election.
She is followed by Spencer Pratt, former television star and Republican candidate supported by Donald Trump.
Bass entered the campaign with low popularity following criticism of his administration's response to the devastating wildfires that ravaged the city in 2025.
Historic candidates in New Mexico and new faces in New Jersey
The June 2 vote also marked historic firsts in other regions of the United States.
In New Mexico, Democrats nominated Deb Haaland, 65, for governor. If she wins in November over Republican Gregg Hull, Haaland will become the first Native American woman in US history to lead a state. The local election debate will focus on the management of record oil revenues (over $850 million), boosted by the global energy crisis generated by the conflict in the Middle East.
In New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, a key and extremely wealthy territory, Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former US Navy helicopter pilot, won the primary. She will challenge incumbent Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr., whose nearly three-month absence from Congress for unspecified medical reasons has sparked local controversy despite messages of support from the White House.
This primary election comes at a delicate domestic time for the Trump administration. In addition to the Iowa fiasco, the White House was recently forced to drop a proposed $1.8 billion fund to compensate people who complained about political investigations under previous administrations.
Although Trump has recently scored electoral successes with endorsed candidates in Kentucky, Texas and South Carolina, the results in Iowa demonstrate that the rural electorate in America's “agricultural heartland” remains unpredictable ahead of this fall's midterm elections.
