Kaupo Rosin, the highest-ranking intelligence officer on NATO's eastern flank, emphasized in an interview with Reuters that Russia is losing more soldiers on the front than it can recruit. He pointed out that general mobilization could threaten the stability of the state.
— All these factors taken together create a situation in which some people in Russia, including at higher levels, realize that they have a serious problem. It's hard to say what Putin thinks about this, but it seems so all of these factors begin to influence his decision-making process – he said.
In recent months Russian troops record slowest progress in Ukraine since 2023, that is, a year after the invasion began. Russia's economy, estimated at $3 trillion, shrank by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. However, President Putin maintains that the government's actions to stimulate the economy are starting to bear fruit, and the Russian army will continue to fight until all set goals are achieved.
Sanctions and economic challenges
Rosin pointed out that the main reason for Russia's difficult financial situation is sanctions imposed on the financial sector, which he described as “exceptionally severe”. Moreover, restrictions on the export of Russian oil significantly reduce state revenues. In his opinion, the Russian authorities currently have to make “very difficult decisions”, and it is not clear what solutions they will choose in the current circumstances.
Estonia, which borders Russia, is one of Ukraine's most important allies in NATO and the European Union. The country constantly appeals to its partners to increase pressure on Moscow and maintain sanctions.
Russian military ambitions do not allow for a breakthrough in the negotiations
According to the head of intelligence, no However, there are currently no signs that Russia is ready to soften its war goals or that any breakthrough was on the horizon. He described Russian society as resilient and said that the belief that Russian leadership is weakening or Putin has serious problems inside the country is only wishful thinking.
Kaupo Rosin predicts that Russia will not give up its attempts to subjugate Ukraine, as long as Vladimir Putin remains in power. Even after the end of hostilities Moscow will maintain a significant number of troops on the border with Ukraine. Rosin believes that after the fighting stops, Russia will strive to expand its military potential along the NATO border, which will be its goal achieving military domination from the Arctic to the Black Sea.
The head of Estonian intelligence emphasized that Russia's military ambitions are very broad and predicts that Moscow will continue sabotage actions in the West, regardless of the threat to civilians.
Currently, Russia consistently denies its involvement in planning acts of sabotage, describing such accusations as attempts at intimidation by the West.
