“The increase in inflation in April was largely due to a significantly faster increase in prices in the “information and communication” category (4.7% year-on-year compared to 2.9% in March), which resulted in an increase in the annual inflation rate by 0.1 percentage point. The acceleration of price growth in this category was caused by an increase in the prices of information and telecommunications equipment and services, mainly mobile telephony services and subscription fees,” economists said.
Another important factor in the increase in inflation in April is the increase in energy, gas and fuel prices by 4.6%. However, the strongest factor contributing to reducing annual inflation last month was a smaller increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which amounted to 1.9%. in April compared to 2.1 percent in March.
“In addition, the price dynamics of 'fuels and lubricants for private means of transport' decreased slightly to 8.4% y/y from 8.6% in March, which was contributed to by government intervention in the fuel market (compared to March, fuel prices decreased by 1.8% in April),” Credit Agricole analysts added.
They also drew attention to the inflationary impulse in the form of a very strong increase in the prices of passenger air transport – by 62%. compared to March. “According to our estimates, core inflation excluding food and energy prices amounted to approximately 3.0% y/y in April (the highest since October 2025), clearly above the target of the Monetary Policy Council (2.5%) and the level recorded in March (2.7%), economists said.
In their opinion, this indicates intensifying inflationary pressure. They expect this pressure to increase in the coming months due to the increasing impact of rising energy prices on underlying goods and services, in particular passenger transport services.
- Read also: Polish railways are preparing for a threat. There is an agreement with the Ministry of National Defense
Economists predict an increase in inflation in Poland
Credit Agricole specialists maintain their predictions of an increase in inflation in the coming months. According to them, in December it will be the highest and will amount to 4.1%. However, in 2027, inflation will not fall below 3.5%. on an annual basis.
Inflation predictions
|
Created using AI/ChatGPT
“The factors contributing to an increase in inflation in the coming quarters will be the increase in the dynamics of fuel prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East and the observed, with a delay, secondary effects of the increase in prices of energy raw materials, reflected in the increased dynamics of food prices and core inflation,” they pointed out.
Economists assume that the government will maintain intervention in the fuel market until February 2027. In addition to fuel prices, inflation is favored by the hydrological drought observed in Poland and spring frosts, which will affect the prices of fruit and vegetables.
“The level of inflation we expect in 2026-2027 is consistent with our forecast of stabilization of NBP interest rates by the end of 2027. However, we see a growing risk of a 'signal' increase in interest rates by 25 basis points in September or the fourth quarter of this year, aimed at anchoring inflation expectations in the conditions of persistently elevated fuel prices and 'spillover' of the impulse. price related to higher prices of energy raw materials on core and food prices,” the economists added.
- Read also: Confusion over fuel prices in Poland. 500 stations broke the regulations
The Central Statistical Office released inflation data
The Central Statistical Office reported on Friday that the prices of consumer goods and services in April increased y/y by 3.2%, and compared to last month they increased by 0.6%. Earlier, in a quick estimate, the Central Statistical Office reported that the CPI in April amounted to 3.2%. y/y 0.6 percent m/m.
