Towards the Chekist junta.
We’ll summarize the results of night and daytime unmanned traffic a little later, because it’s not all over yet. For now, it's in order of announcement for the coming days.
1. The other day, Western Bolshevik publications published information from sources in Western intelligence services that a military coup led by Shoigu is allegedly brewing in Russia.
This rubbish can be heard a mile away by the FSB stuffing. Therefore, evaluating this story only by the content of the spoken letters is pointless.
Another thing is interesting: if someone charges such nonsense according to the “through the west” scheme, it means that someone needs it.
I was intrigued by two things. The first is the time of occurrence of the stuffing. Second: such things, as a rule, do not hang in the air. It looks like the start of a multi-move.
It is interesting to think conspiratorially about the possible continuation and goals of this fuss.
Two basic hypotheses.
- Trump cosplay with Putin's consent.
- Forcing the Jucheization of Russia without Putin's consent.
Both correlate with data on a decrease in the number of Russian citizens who approve of what is happening in Russia, and are built around the May 9 parade.
Context.
2. In recent months, the socio-political atmosphere in Russia has been objectively worsening. Stagnation in the economy, Internet blocking, rising prices for everything, higher taxes and increased repression of business, a protracted war against the backdrop of burning oil refineries creates the ground for discontent.
At the elite level, two interest groups have objectively formed: those whose welfare and status depend on international interaction, and those whose power is cloaked within Russia.
The first group is objectively interested in breaking out of international semi-isolation, lifting sanctions, and attracting technology and investment.
The second focuses more on control within the Russian Federation, plus the “CIS countries” in orbit.
And so it turns out that at the institutional level among security forces, the international path is the sphere of responsibility of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation and the GRU (GU) of the General Staff. And the internal story is the FSB.
“Internationalists” are interested in a speedy end to the deadlock war, which is weakening the position of the Russian Federation for decades to come. But with the FSB, everything is different – they are interested in the “domestic market” and complete control of entry and exit abroad, which is difficult in the presence of living competing structures. In this context, the disgrace of the GRU in Mali is like the FSB.
And it so happened that the fight against internal conspiracy is also the competence of the FSB.
The organic interest of the FSB in interspecies struggle: to create conditions for tightening the internal regime, to build a new iron curtain, controlling interaction with the world. This will increase the weight of the apparatus and concentrate resources on the internal track with the prospect of a monopoly seizure of power and redistribution of property.
To do this you need:
- to achieve continuation of the war for an indefinite period (including through escalation);
- to finally humiliate the Russian army and undermine the power of the army lobby in order to weaken competitors within the country;
- to discredit the structures working on the external track under the guise of their inability to loosen the grip of sanctions and impose communication on Russia’s terms to the world.
The easiest way to do this is by exposing the traitors who are weaving conspiracies. In view of this, a plan is simply generated, which differs only in the degree of Putin’s awareness and complicity.
3. Trump cosplay is built according to this scheme.
The leaders of the FSB tell the tsar: the situation inside is heating up, the people are grumbling, the military is not coping, but the war cannot be stopped. Therefore, the idea is to simulate an attack by Ukraine on the May 9 parade and personally on the Tsar.
The Tsar shows courage, his rating rises, the people mobilize around the throne, talking heads explain the need to crush the fascist hydra in its lair and its accomplices in Russia.
Rhetoric can be elevated to the point of declaring mobilization. Or spur a wave of volunteers. In any case, there will be a war, there will be dramatically fewer restrictions.
There is an immediate rise to the same messianic platform as Trump; it is easier to convey that one should not support those who encroach on the kings. The blackmail of the Europeans is reaching a new level – they will be accused of complicity in the attack on the Tsar with the announcement of personal consequences. No one is catching the “shadow fleet” anymore, the sanctions regime is falling apart.
The military is blamed for the failure to stop the attack, and the screws are tightened even more. International contacts are moderated by the FSB. Profit.
It looks beautiful, but there is one insurmountable obstacle: Putin's pathological cowardice. No scenarios with either real or symbolic danger to his carcass are possible with his consent.
There remains another way: to play Putin “in the dark”
4. The scenario is like this.
On May 8-9, a myriad of air defense systems are being deployed to Moscow. It makes no sense for Ukraine to really shoot at Moscow these days. Too expensive for simple symbolism. It’s easier to mow down more targets in defenseless regions.
Putin will be assured that Moscow is reliably covered.
And against this background, a lone UAV will fly into the Red Square area…
The FSB will immediately launch two information streams.
The first is in the ears of Putin: Comrade Tsar, the UAV was planed from Tuvan larch, inlaid with deer antlers and cedar cones. He could not break through without outside help – it was as if either his own rebels had let in, or the military traitors had organized a “window” for the Kyiv regime. You can't trust anyone. They want to overthrow you, hang all your sins on you, surrender to the infidels, ending the war. We need to crush the internal bastards and show Kyiv that such games are not forgiving.
The second flow is outward: the Nazi regime has encroached on the sacred, there can now be no dialogue, only unconditional surrender. And Europe will receive retribution for its complicity.
The intimidated tsar will hide in his hole and give carte blanche to the FSB Politburo. The army will be made aware that it has failed to cope with the priority task of defending the capital, and wide opportunities will open up for repression based on the search for traitors. The purges will go well with dear Russians, because for years Rospropaganda has been pumping out the thesis that “they attack from Kazakhstan and Estonia or launch their own.” And now they are the villains, exposed!
An avalanche of messages will roll in about the betrayal of the sabotage generals, because of whom everything is like this. There will be a pump-up to accelerate the filling of at least the forces of unmanned systems, so that from August we will have options – to escalate the situation in the Baltic or try to chew through the Donetsk region.
In the summer, the situation in the world and Europe may be such that the military preparations of the Russian Federation alone may be enough to precipitate a number of European leaders. Which will weaken support for Ukraine.
The bottleneck of the plan is the king's reaction. He can become hysterical and confuse the cards by not ensuring the proper legitimacy of intercepting the levers.
If the appearance of a monolithic regime in such a game is not initially created, it will crumble. It will only get worse. Ukraine will not bend. Europe need not be afraid. The United States will begin to be undermined by promises of personal exit for individual boyars…
We'll see how it will be.
But conspiracy theories suggest: May 9 – an incident, from May 10 – escalation (no, there will be no nuclear attack on Kyiv, and Budanov will write down the escaped ambassadors in his notebook).
Dear Russians who do not fit into this model and who have something to lose, probably see these stories. All this beauty is categorically unprofitable for them. All the more interesting.
