Putin's fragile empire is crumbling. Another ally has had enough

The surrounded Russian soldiers, after consulting with their enemies, withdrew from Kidal, a strategically important city on the border with Algeria. The offensive was a continuation of the autumn blockade of the capital Bamako, when Islamists spent several weeks attacking trucks delivering oil from neighboring countries and for a time almost paralyzed life in the metropolis.

Doubt in Russia's strength

According to experts, even within the Malian army there are now growing doubts as to whether it is wise to rely on Russia. It is not free. This poor country did not have to pay for the presence of French soldiers, but it did have to pay for the Russian security services – according to “The Africa Report” magazine, about $10 million. (PLN 36.5 million) per month. This amount partly comes from the Malian budget, and is partly covered by providing Russia with access to Malian gold deposits.

From the point of view of many Malians, this was an acceptable price. They were hampered by the presence of a former colonial power that, in their opinion, treated the locals with superiority and arrogance and often prepared military actions against Islamists without the consent or knowledge of local authorities – and yet the jihadists continued to spread. The Russians were to act in the service of the Malian army. But what if even their presence and combat involvement do not bring results – terrorists are still growing in strength.

They use many factors in their relentless campaign. They started using simple drones – thanks to them they have more accurate information about targets and, if necessary, they send these machines into action, equipping them with simple explosives. According to BBC sources, traffickers also smuggle them Starlink, which provides Internet access in remote areas. The jihadists get money for this from many sources: Mali is a large exporter of cattle – Islamists steal them and make millions of dollars from their sale.

They also impose taxes on those who want to trade in the territory they control. The key to the current offensive is the alliance of Islamists with the Tuareg militia, who have been fighting for the independence of their territories in northern Mali for decades. In the long run, jihadists also benefit from the poor rule of the Malian military junta and the previous pro-Western civilian governments, which were and still are not able to improve the living standards of the inhabitants. Many young men see the only chance to earn money in joining jihadists.

Europe's chance

The European Union (unlike France) remains active in Mali – it has an ambassador there and trains local police. However, until local authorities change their attitude and ask for help, Europeans will not be able to do much more in this country. The main threat currently is the spread of the jihadist movement to more populated and stable West African countries, such as Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Benin. And here the European Union and individual countries can provide much more help.

With information, training, weapons and advice, they can maximize these countries' resilience to the threat – if West African countries ask for it. Through media support and online information strategies, they can prevent the spread of anti-Western — whether Islamist or Russian — propaganda.

Finally, what is most important – through various guarantees, they can support business and investments in the region as much as possible, which would provide jobs for young people. Ultimately, this is the only effective, long-term strategy to combat the temptations of terror.