The introduction of a Carbon Import Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) exacerbates structural imbalances in the Ukrainian economy, increases dependence on international financial assistance, and creates long-term risks for industry and national security. GMK Center analysts came to this conclusion in a new study.
According to the document, the war has already significantly changed the economic model of Ukraine. Due to the destruction of export-oriented industry and logistics, GDP growth is slowing: in 2026 it is forecast at about 1.8%. At the same time, imbalances in the economy are growing: the consolidated budget deficit will reach 19.4% of GDP, the foreign trade deficit will reach 26.5%, and the share of government spending will reach more than 61% of GDP.
External assistance now plays an important role in maintaining macro-financial stability – in 2025 it is estimated at approximately $52 billion. However, as analysts note, these funds do not shape domestic economic development, but are largely used to cover deficits and stimulate import growth.
Against this background, CBAM creates additional pressure: according to GMK Center estimates, in 2026–2030 Ukraine could lose up to $3.9 billion in exports of metallurgical products and another $3.6 billion in tax revenues. Total GDP losses including supply chains could reach $6 billion, or up to 2.1% of GDP. Exports of Ukrainian metallurgy to the EU could fall to $1.75 billion by 2030, and total CBAM payments for Ukrainian producers in 2026–2030 could amount to approximately €1.2 billion – this is comparable to two years of investment in the industry.
“CBAM discriminates against lower-income countries that cannot finance decarbonization at scale,” the study notes.
Analysts pay special attention to social consequences. The metallurgical industry traditionally provides employment in industrial regions, in particular near the front line. The reduction in production could lead to the loss of tens of thousands of jobs, increased migration and increased social tension. At the same time, the ability to compensate for losses at the expense of other sectors is limited: alternative industries are not able to quickly replace up to $2 billion in exports, $0.9 billion in investments and $1.6 billion in tax revenues that metallurgy generates.
The study also notes that CBAM increases national security risks: a weakening industrial base could affect the country's defense capability, and increased dependence on foreign aid could create additional macro-financial risks. Without additional support and adaptation mechanisms, in particular decarbonization funding with EU participation, CBAM could accelerate the deindustrialization of Ukraine, analysts warn.
