The war in Ukraine continues, a ceasefire through a peaceful settlement still seems distant, because negotiations have reached a dead end and neither side is ready to make concessions. This is stated in an analytical article by The New York Times published on April 25.
The publication noted that against the backdrop of the US war with Iran, Europe’s hopes for a quick end to the war in Ukraine are fading. In its confrontation, Ukraine remains virtually face to face with the aggressor country Russia; a grueling war continues, the end of which is not in sight. Neither the Russian Federation nor Ukraine has a clear path to victory or to peace through negotiations. Also, according to the author of the publication, no one expects that without the intervention of US President Donald Trump, who has so far been reluctant to put pressure on Moscow, a settlement of the war will be possible. There is no alternative negotiator who would have influence on each of the parties, the NYT states.
Analyst on Russia and Ukraine issues James Scherr noted that the head of the White House promised to end the war within 24 hours. 15 months have passed since then, but the parties remain where the negotiations began. Europe, taking this into account, continues to support Ukraine in order to prevent the Russian Federation from winning by military or political means. Also, in his opinion, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already “lost 80% of his illusions” regarding the possibility of enlisting Trump’s support. The head of the Ukrainian state expressed doubt that the United States would be able to restrain the Russian Federation from a new offensive without reliable security guarantees, and criticized approaches that provide for unilateral concessions, in particular the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from territories that the Russian Federation failed to occupy.
According to media reports, “some behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing at a lower level” between Kiev and Washington; Ukrainian officials insist on resuming trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, the United States and the Russian Federation and allegedly proposed calling the territory of eastern Donbass, which the Kremlin wants to obtain, “Donnyland” in honor of Trump. Despite this, serious negotiations are now on hold.
The Europeans have introduced the 20th package of sanctions against Russia. They hope that illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin will come to terms with the fact that Russia got everything it could in Ukraine and will want to seriously discuss ending the war. At the same time, the publication’s sources among European officials emphasized that the head of the Kremlin wants to deal with the United States, not the EU. Europe, for its part, would like to resume serious engagement with America to encourage Putin to make concessions.
German Marshall Fund defense expert Claudia Major said the problem for Europeans was the “lack of a theory of victory for Ukraine.” In her opinion, the EU is now trying to keep Ukraine afloat until “someone dies in Moscow, is thrown out the window, or the economy collapses.” This is not a strategy, Major emphasized. EU officials admit that they are too committed to Ukraine for Moscow to perceive them as a mediator, and French attempts to establish a dialogue with the Russian Federation have not yielded results.
Now, according to the media, there is nothing to indicate a negotiated end to the war any time soon. Ukraine is encouraged by the EU's financial support package and some progress on the battlefield, Putin has not achieved his goals, although the Russian economy “benefits from higher energy prices due to the war in Iran.” Because of the war with Tehran, Washington is “distracted and losing interest,” the article says.
