At the meeting that ended on Thursday The Monetary Policy Council did not change the level of NBP interest rates. This means maintaining the current monetary policy parameters. We wrote about it in Business Insider Polska.
The decision was in line with previous market expectations, but the accompanying statement indicates the central bank's increasing caution.
- Read also: “There are no and will not be any reductions.” Experts are firm about the Monetary Policy Council's decision on rates
Inflation is back in focus
The National Bank of Poland emphasizes that further decisions of the Monetary Policy Council will depend on the incoming data on inflation and economic activity in Poland. Particular attention is paid to the impact of external factors, including changes in commodity prices and global inflation, which remain strongly related to geopolitical tensions.
According to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office CPI inflation in Poland in March 2026 increased to 3.0%. year to yearwith 2.1 percent in February. As indicated by the National Bank of Poland, the main reason was sharp increase in fuel pricesrelated to the conflict in the Middle East.
Fuel prices are rising, uncertainty is growing
The central bank notes that supply constraints resulting from the conflict in the Middle East region have led to an increase in fuel prices on global markets. At the same time, prices of agricultural raw materials remain lower than a year ago, which partially alleviates the inflationary pressure.
However, the situation in the international environment remains ambiguous. In the first quarter of 2026, economic growth is likely to slow down in the euro areawhereas accelerated in the United States. In the euro area, HICP inflation in March increased – according to preliminary Eurostat data – to 2.5 percent year to year.
A mixed picture of the Polish economy
NBP draws attention to the diverse situation in the domestic economy. In February 2026:
- retail sales and industrial production increased year-on-year,
- construction and assembly production dropped significantly again,
- wage dynamics in the enterprise sector remained unchanged,
- at the same time, a further decline in employment in this sector was observed.
This mixed picture further complicates assessment of the outlook for inflation and economic growth, the central bank writes.
Risk factors and possible interventions
NBP indicates that risk to the inflation path remain including:
- shape of fiscal policy,
- fuel price regulations,
- pace of economic activity in Poland,
- further development of wage dynamics.
The Central Bank emphasizes that it remains ready to take all necessary actions to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, including, if necessary, to intervene in the currency market.
