The US Constitution guarantees his term of office until January 20, 2029. My European friends are used to parliamentary democracies, where the parliament can pass a vote of no confidence and dismiss the prime minister.
Democrats, who will fight to take control of the House of Representatives in the fall, may try to suggest otherwise, but there is no such thing as a vote of no confidence in the US Congress. They Can't Make President Trump Just 'Disappear'.
Europe is counting on quick changes in Washington, which simply will not come. And time is working in Putin's favor today, not Europe's.
In the photo on the left, humanitarian aid sent to Ukraine. On the right, Steven Moore, founder of the Ukraine Freedom Project, wearing a vest with the organization's patchUkraine Freedom Project / Ukraine Freedom Project
In the US, it is possible to impeach the president by the House of Representatives – and Democrats will undoubtedly try to do so if they take over the House after the fall elections. Since 1789, this has only happened 62 times, twice of which were against Trump. If Democrats win, we can expect a third time in about a year.
President Donald Trump delivering a speech on war with Iran, White House, Washington, USA, April 1, 2026.ALEX BRANDON / POOL / PAP
Impeachment is more like a trial than a vote of no confidence. The president can be impeached for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors” under Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution.
The Senate then acts as a court and is presided over by the President of the Supreme Court. Conviction requires a 2/3 majority of votes, i.e. 67 senators.
After the 2026 elections, there is almost no chance that Trump will be convicted by the Senate and removed from office. And even if it did happen, JD Vance would be president.
And here we move from constitutional provisions to political realities.
An insurmountable barrier
Democrats would have to win the four Senate seats currently held by Republicans and not lose any of their own. It's difficult, but possible. However, reaching the 67-vote threshold needed to convict in an impeachment trial is a completely different story.
The Cook Political Report has been considered the most reliable source of political forecasts in the USA for years. According to their analysis, two Republican and two Democratic seats are “on the verge” — the outcome is unpredictable. Four more Republican seats are potentially at risk but are likely to remain in Republican hands. As many as 16 seats are considered certain for Republicans – with no real chance for Democrats.
Democrats currently hold 47 seats in the Senate. To reach the 67 votes needed to convict the president, they would have to win all six “contested” seats and as many as 14 of 16 certain Republican seats — and not lose a single one of their own. It just won't happen.
Will Trump's possible impeachment in 2027 make Republicans change sides? In my opinion, no.
MAGA deals the cards
In 2020, Trump was impeached for abuse of power – for trying to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to open an investigation into Joe Biden – and obstruction of justice. The only Republican senator to vote against his party was Mitt Romney.
The 2021 January 6 impeachment trial was the most bipartisan in history, but only seven Republicans voted to convict:
Richard Burr (North Carolina),
Bill Cassidy (Louisiana),
Susan Collins (Maine),
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska),
Mitt Romney (Utah),
Ben Sasse (Nebraska),
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania).
Attack on the Capitol in Washington, DC, January 6, 2021.Tyler Merbler / Wikimedia Commons
What might cause more Republicans to change their position? Nothing at the moment. Among voters identifying with the MAGA movement, Trump has as many as 92 percent. support. And this is of great importance.
In 2024, as many as 87 percent Congressional races were decided by primaries — that is, intra-party elections. In practice, this means that 87 percent districts are constructed in such a way that they are “safe” for one party. According to the Unite America Institute, as many as 87 percent members of Congress were elected by only 7 percent. voters. Moreover, primary voters are much more radical — as much as four times less moderate than November voters.
MAGA voters are the ones who elect Republican senators. And they think very highly of Trump.
Time for a strategy
Trump will leave office in one of two ways: either by military helicopter on January 20, 2029, or “foot first” — on a day none of us knows. If the latter happens, or if he is removed from office, JD Vance will become president. And everything indicates that he will be even less favorable to Europe than Trump.
The world is at war and Trump isn't going anywhere. Europe must finally develop a plan of action against Trump and Vance. Considering Trump's rather abrasive manner towards European leaders, it is understandable that they do not want to get involved in a conflict with Iran. But it would be good if they at least addressed the war going on in their own backyard.
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In 2025, almost all military aid to Ukraine came from Europe — $33 billion and $350 million. (approx. PLN 133 billion), according to the German Institute in Kiel. Unfortunately, at the same time, European NATO countries imported fossil fuels worth almost $54 billion from Russia. (approx. PLN 212 billion). In other words: Europe finances Putin's war machine more than Ukraine. In practice, this means that the balance is negative by approximately USD 20 billion. (approx. PLN 80 billion).
On an average day in February this year, European NATO countries imported enough Russian raw materials to finance all the drones and missiles Putin used in his attack on Ukrainian civilians on Good Friday – and still have leftover for nine T-90 tanks. In one day. The countries financing this practice include: France, Belgium, Spain, Türkiye, Hungary and the Netherlands.
The countries in Europe that actually want to defeat Russia are, in no particular order, Poland, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and the United Kingdom, despite current tensions in transatlantic relations.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said during a breakfast in Davos organized by Ukraine House: – We are not at war with Russia. Europe is not at war with Russia – justifying its reluctance to use the $200 billion. (approx. PLN 800 billion) of frozen Russian assets. Perhaps he missed the three incidents with Russian drones that paralyzed Brussels airport in the fall, or the approximately 150 hybrid attacks in Europe last year – sabotage, arson, drone attacks and explosives.
De Wever may believe he is not at war with Russia. But Putin thinks he is at war with Belgium.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
